Friday, September 25, 2009

Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since July on Recovery Concern

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York is poised for its biggest weekly drop since July after U.S. sales of existing homes unexpectedly slumped, bolstering skepticism about the pace of recovery in the biggest energy consuming nation.

Oil has dropped 9 percent this week as an Energy Information Administration report showed a gain in U.S. fuel stockpiles, boosting speculation of a supply glut. Prices are also under pressure from a stronger dollar, which reduces the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

“The home sales data in the U.S. was a trigger that contributed to a tumble in the oil price,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The oil data from the EIA is relatively bearish, and on top of that the U.S. dollar recovered a little bit of ground.”

Crude oil for November delivery traded at $65.87 a barrel, down 2 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:56 a.m. in Sydney. Futures, which dropped 4.5 percent yesterday, are headed for the biggest decline since the week ended July 10. Prices have advanced 48 percent since the start of the year.

U.S. equities fell for a second day yesterday as sales of existing homes slumped and the Federal Reserve said it will cut the size of two programs meant to bolster credit markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1 percent in New York and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4 percent.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent to $1.4649 per euro at 9:57 in Sydney, from $1.4666 yesterday.

Supplies Increase

“We expect a hesitant recovery in the U.S. and in that context we’re going to get bits of data that disappoint, and that’s what we saw last night,” Moore said.

Supplies of crude oil rose 2.86 million barrels, to 335.6 million, the biggest increase since the week ended July 24, according to the Energy Department report released Sept. 23. Analysts had expected a 1.4 million-barrel decrease. The gain left stockpiles 9.1 percent above the five-year average.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles surged 5.41 million barrels last week, more than 10 times the gain forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey, according to the report. Demand for the fuel slipped 2.3 percent to 8.79 million barrels a day, the lowest since January.

Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.96 million barrels, almost double analyst estimates.

“There has been a lot of talk about green shoots, but we are still shedding jobs and oil demand is still going to drop by 2 million barrels this year,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “There comes a point when you have to pay attention to the fundamentals.”

Brent crude for November settlement rose 1 cent to $64.83 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:06 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $3.17, or 4.7 percent, to $64.82.

Dollar Rises Versus Euro as Slow Recovery Curbs Risk Appetite

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar advanced for a third-day against the euro, the longest strength of gains in a month, as signs of a slow recovery from the recession reduced demand for higher-yielding assets funded in the greenback.

The dollar headed for its first weekly advance in three weeks against the 16-nation currency before a report forecast to show that growth in U.S. durable goods orders slowed last month. The pound reached the lowest in more than three months against the dollar after the Newcastle Journal reported that Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the pound’s drop is “very helpful” in rebalancing the U.K. economy.

“The market priced in prospects of a global recovery too much and too fast,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief analyst at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “The sustainability of gains for higher-yielding currencies at the expense of the dollar may be called into question.”

The dollar traded at $1.4655 per euro at 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4666 yesterday in New York. The U.S. currency touched $1.4844 on Sept. 23, the weakest since Sept. 22, 2008. The dollar was at 90.90 yen from 91.27 yen. The yen fetched 133.24 per euro from 133.86 yesterday.

The pound fell to $1.5918, the lowest since June 8, from $1.6059 yesterday in New York. The U.K. currency dropped to 91.93 pence per euro, reaching the weakest level since April 1.

Orders for durable goods in the U.S. meant to last several years increased 0.4 percent in August, after rising 5.1 percent the previous month, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Commerce Department’s report is due for release at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Adding to signs of a slow recovery, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that purchases of existing U.S. homes decreased 2.7 percent in August to a 5.10 million annual pace.

G-20 Meeting

The U.S. currency rose against 15 out of its 16 most-active counterparts after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. has a “special responsibility” to support the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, spurring speculation that Group of 20 leaders will discuss the falling greenback.

“A strong dollar is very important in the United States,” Geithner said in response to a question at a press conference yesterday in Pittsburgh, where the G-20 nations started two days of talks.

His comments came after German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters in Berlin yesterday that G-20 leaders would discuss exchange rates at the summit in Pittsburgh, which ends today. The G-20 is composed of the leading industrial and developing economies, accounting for about 85 percent of the global economy.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

FCPO 250909


CPO 3rd month Dec futures contract traded fall RM44 lower as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2146 with a total of 7,123 lots traded in the market. CPO price were trade wide range despite was mainly traded sideways despite crude oil and soybean oil were traded lower during trading sessions.

Technically, CPO price were seen consolidating within range from RM2090 to RM2120 regions be manage to break upwards 15 minutes before market stop trading. Based on our technical point of view, our opinion suggests CPO price would trade higher in the coming trading while further confirmation if manage to break above RM2188 and Rm2205 regions. However, traders were advice to only hold long position in the coming trading session provided support levels at RM2100 and RM2070 were not violated during trading sessions.

FKLI Commentary on 25/09/09


FKLI Sep Futures contract traded 2.5 lower to close at 1219 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 3,521 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded sideways during trading session due to mix regional performance as Nikkei were traded higher while Hang Seng indices were trader lower during trading sessions.

Technically, FKLI still seems temporary holding above our support levels at 1206 regions after several attempts during trading sessions. Based on our technical point of view, our opinion suggests FKLI currently was in middle of crisis as uptrend would only be still intact provided support levels at 1216 and 1202 regions. Traders were advice to hold long position provided support levels were not violated at any time during trading sessions while be extra cautious around resistance levels at 1234 and 1245 regions.

Soybeans Slump as Risk of Frost Damage to U.S. Crops Recedes

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans declined for the fourth time in five days on speculation that freezing weather in the Midwest will cause little damage to the crop in the U.S., the biggest exporter.

Cold air from Canada will move into the U.S. next week, with freezing temperatures likely to stay north of the biggest growing areas, said Mike Tannura, the president of T-Storm Weather in Chicago. About 40 percent of the crop was beginning to drop leaves as of Sept. 20, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s a sign the plants are mature and ready for harvest.

“The risk of early frost keeps falling,” Tommy Xiao, analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., said by phone from Shanghai. “The trend toward a bumper crop is inevitable.”

November-delivery soybeans dropped as much as 9.5 cents, or 1 percent, $9.11 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The contract was at $9.165 at 9:15 a.m. Beijing time.

Soybean production will jump to a record 3.245 billion bushels, up 9.7 percent from last year, the USDA said in a Sept. 11 report. Yields will rise to 42.3 bushels an acre from 39.6 bushels last year, the department said.

Corn for December delivery fell as much as 5 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $3.2525 a bushel before trading at $3.2675.

For Related News and Information: Top commodity reports: TOP CMD Top Agriculture stories: TOP AGR About food prices: STNI FOODPRICES On agriculture markets: NI AGMARKET BN On agriculture and biofuels: TNI AGR ALTNRG BN Commodity arbitrage calculator: CARC Bloomberg weather data by region: WETR Global agriculture prices: AGGP

Crude Oil Drops After Unexpected U.S. Supply Gain, Dollar Rise

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a second day in New York after a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected increase in fuel stockpiles in the world’s largest energy consuming nation.

Crude inventories climbed 2.86 million barrels last week, the department said yesterday, compared with the 1.4 million- barrel drop forecast in a Bloomberg News analyst survey. Oil also fell after the dollar rose against the euro, reducing the attractiveness of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

“The inventory report showed a build in crude oil and petroleum, helping put pressure on oil to trade lower,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital in Seattle. “With equities closing at the low for the session, it pushed oil down even further in after hours trading. If the trend can continue, oil could trade below $68” today.

Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 87 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $68.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was trading at $68.60 at 10:33 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $2.79, or 3.9 percent, to settle at $68.97. Prices have gained 53 percent since January.

The dollar traded at $1.4717 per euro at 8:08 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4735 yesterday. U.S. equities fell yesterday amid concern the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its efforts to lift the economy out of recession.

Fuel Stockpiles

“There are big concerns around the supply side,” said Ben Westmore, an energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “We didn’t see much of a drawdown in gasoline supplies over the summer months in the U.S., and we continue to see these builds of distillate stocks ahead of winter.”

Crude oil inventories rose to 335.6 million barrels, the biggest increase since the week ended July 24, the Energy Department report showed. The gain left stockpiles 9.1 percent above the five-year average. Imports climbed 10 percent to 9.79 million barrels a day, the highest since July.

Stockpiles of distillate fuels rose 2.96 million barrels to 170.8 million, the highest since January 1983, according to the department. Analysts forecast a 1.45 million-barrel gain.

Gasoline supplies rose 5.41 million barrels to 213.1 million, the biggest increase since January, according to the report. That left stockpiles 6.5 percent above the five-year average for the period. A 500,000 barrel gain was forecast.

Refineries operated at 85.6 percent of capacity last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous week, the Energy Department said. U.S. refiners often idle units for maintenance in September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil use increases.

FOMC

The Fed, following a two-day policy meeting, changed the wording in the final paragraph of its statement to say it will continue to employ a “wide range of tools” to bolster the economy. In its August statement, it said it would use “all available” tools.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent in New York yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 12.01 points, or 0.1 percent, to 9,817.86.

Japanese stocks rose as analysts’ upgrades boosted shares of Toshiba Corp. and Fast Retailing Co., while resource- related stocks declined on lower commodity prices. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.3 percent of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index rose 0.2 percent to 941.39.

U.S. fuel consumption dropped 3.3 percent to 18.5 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended June 26. Gasoline use slipped 2.3 percent to 8.79 million barrels a day, the lowest since January.

Brent crude for November settlement dropped as much as 56 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $67.43 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $67.72 at 10:35 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell $2.54, or 3.6 percent, to end the session at $67.99 a barrel.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

FKLI Commentary on 24/09/09


FKLI Sep Futures contract closed unchanged at 1221.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 4,193 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded lower in the last trading hours after long consolidation in the morning session after lack of regional participation during trading session as Nikkei were closed for trading.

Technically, FKLI seems break down from the descending triangle in the 15 min price chart where previous support seen at 1225 levels while resistance levels were seen at 1230 regions. Based on our technical view, our opinion suggests FKLI would still remain uptrend provided previous low at 1216 and 1202 were not violated in the coming trading sessions. Traders were advice to hold long cautiously to ensure support levels were not violated while be alert around resistance levels at 1233 and 1246 regions.

FCPO 240909


CPO 3rd month Dec futures contract traded fall RM44 lower as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2146 with a total of 7,123 lots traded in the market. CPO price were traded lower in the coming trading session despite crude oil and soybean oil electronic trading were not plunge during trading sessions.

Technically, CPO price were traded lower after manage to rebound 38.1% Fibonacci rebound levels at RM2188 region in the morning trading sessions. Based on our technical view, our opinion suggests CPO would remain intact with bull trend as long as support levels at RM2132 and RM2110; both 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retrace levels were not violated in the coming trading sessions. Traders were advice to hold long position in the coming trading session provided support levels were not violated while be alert around resistance levels at RM2170 and RM2205 regions.

Crude Oil Trades Near $72 After Dollar Weakens, Equities Rise

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near $72 a barrel in New York after rising yesterday as the dollar declined and U.S. stocks advanced on signs the world economy is improving.

Oil climbed 2.6 percent yesterday, the first gain in four days, as the dollar slipped to $1.4821 per euro, its lowest in a year. A weaker dollar bolsters the appeal of oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.

“Oil rallied above $70 fueled by the falling dollar and higher equities markets,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital in Seattle. “With the dollar losing value day by day other assets such as oil, gold, and equities become more attractive boosting their value.”

Crude oil for November delivery traded at $71.73 a barrel, down 3 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:21 a.m. in Sydney. Prices have gained 61 percent since the start of the year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.7 percent to 1,071.66 in New York yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 51.01 points, or 0.5 percent, to 9,829.87. The dollar traded at $1.4789 per euro at 6:04 a.m. in Tokyo.

The U.S. Energy Department may report today that crude oil supplies declined for a fourth week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Stockpiles fell 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18, from 332.8 million, according to the median of 17 forecasts.

Industry Report

The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose 276,000 barrels to 337.2 million last week. Gasoline supplies increased 3.82 million barrels, the report showed.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. The industry-funded API put out its own data at 4:30 p.m. yesterday.

The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

Brent crude for November settlement rose $1.84, or 2.7 percent, to end the session at $70.53 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Dollar Declines to One-Year Low Versus Euro Before Fed Decision

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined to a one-year low against the euro on speculation Federal Reserve policy makers will signal today this will keep interest rates low, diminishing the allure of U.S. assets.

The greenback fell versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts after a government report showed New Zealand’s economy unexpectedly expanded for the first time in six quarters, spurring investors to buy higher-yielding assets. The U.S. dollar also declined on concern Group of 20 leaders, meeting in Pittsburgh starting tomorrow, will call for a reduction in global trade imbalances that may cause further gains in the dollar’s counterparts.

“Our view is that the Fed won’t change its statement, so we’d be very surprised if they changed the reference to exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rate,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “We are broadly bearish on the dollar. The improving global picture tends to produce selling of the dollar.”

The dollar fell to $1.4809 per euro as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4790 in New York yesterday, after earlier declining to $1.4842, the lowest level since Sept. 22, 2008. The U.S. currency dropped to 1.0220 Swiss francs, after earlier reaching 1.0189 francs, the weakest since July 22, 2008.

The yen climbed to 90.77 per dollar from 91.10, and rose to 134.38 per euro from 134.76. The New Zealand dollar advanced 0.9 percent to 66.06 yen, after earlier rising to 66.27 yen, the highest level since Oct. 6, 2008.

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, dropped to as low as 75.939, the weakest since Sept. 22, 2008, before trading at 75.986 from 76.118 yesterday.