Crude Oil Extends Gains on Signs of Global Economic Recovery

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced for a third day after European economic confidence increased and unemployment claims in Germany and the U.S. declined, adding to signs the global economy is rebounding.

Oil, which is poised for a second week of gains, rose yesterday after the European report showed the euro-area recovery is strengthening even as Greece’s fiscal crisis spreads across the region. Refineries in the U.S. operated at the highest level in almost two years last week, the Energy Department said April 29 in a report.

“There are sources of uncertainty in the market that have threatened to derail confidence in the economic recovery, but we are still seeing an encouraging flow of data in the U.S. and elsewhere,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There seemed to be a little less concern with events unfolding in Europe.”

Crude oil for June delivery rose 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $85.47 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:20 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract climbed $1.95, or 2.3 percent, to $85.17. Futures are poised for a 0.4 percent gain for the week and a 2 percent advance for April, marking the third month of gains.

Oil also rose as U.S. jobless claims fell to a one-month low, and German unemployment declined at the fastest pace in more than two years.

In Germany, the region’s largest economy, unemployment decreased 68,000 to 3.29 million in April. Economists had forecast a drop of 10,000, based on the median estimate of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 448,000 in the week ended April 24, in line with the forecast of economists in a separate Bloomberg survey.

OPEC Shipments

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will ship 23.3 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 15, compared with 23.36 million in the month ended April 17, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.

The second supply reduction will come after Asian refiners cut imports and shut plants for maintenance, the consultant said. The drop reported last week was the first since March 20. The data exclude Ecuador and Angola.

U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 1.96 million barrels to 357.8 million last week, the highest level since June, the Energy Department reported this week. Stockpiles were forecast to climb 1 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Imports increased 0.7 percent to 9.68 million barrels a day, the most since September.

Brent crude for June settlement traded at $87.02 a barrel, up 12 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:23 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract gained 74 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $86.90.

Soybeans Rise on Speculation China Oilseed Demand to Increase

April 29 (Bloomberg) --Soybeans rose for a second day on speculation that China’s surging economy will bolster demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s largest producer and exporter.

China bought 120,000 metric tons of the oilseed for delivery before Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. In a separate report, the USDA said the Asian nation purchased 691,000 tons for delivery in the following year. Yesterday, the department said China had made its largest corn purchase in nine years.

“Another sale of soybeans to China is supporting the rally,” said Bill Nelson, a senior economist for Doane Agricultural Services Co. in St. Louis. “The market is also getting a bullish kick from the Chinese purchase of U.S. corn” because it suggests demand is outpacing production, Nelson said.

Soybean futures for July delivery rose 2.5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $9.96 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. On April 26, the most-active contract touched $10.20, the highest price since Jan. 11.

China’s top grain administrator said last week that stockpiles of grain and cooking oil need to be increased to stabilize domestic prices. China’s economy in the first quarter expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years.

Soybeans for delivery in November, after the harvest, rose on speculation that the record pace of U.S. corn planting will result in farmers sowing more of the grain, and fewer acres with soybeans, Nelson said.

Planting Outlook

The USDA said March 30 that farmers intend to plant soybeans on a record 78.098 million acres this year, up 0.8 percent from 77.451 million last year.

“Farmers probably will plant fewer acres of soybeans” than the USDA said in March, Nelson said. “The fast pace of corn plantings in giving soybeans a boost.”

About 50 percent of the corn crop was seeded as of April 25, compared with 19 percent a week earlier and 20 percent last year, the USDA said this week. Since 2000, when more than 50 percent of the crop was planted by May 1, farmers reduced soybean sowings, Nelson said.

In 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2006, when corn plantings topped 50 percent at this stage of the season, the USDA reduced its estimate of soybean plantings on average about 900,000 acres from a March survey of farmers to its June update, Nelson said.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 5 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $9.705, the second straight gain. The contract has risen 5.7 percent this month.

Soybeans are the second-biggest U.S. crop, behind corn, with a 2009 value of $31.8 billion, government figures show.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 30th Apr 2010

FCPO 3rd month July futures contract traded RM16 lower to close at RM2531 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 9,160 lots traded in the market. FCPO price was consolidating during trading sessions despite crude oil and soybean oil was traded higher during electronic trading.
FCPO price tested support levels at RM2524; 50% Fibonacci support levels, several times before end of trading sessions. Technically, since FCPO price traded stopped at 50% projected figure, FCPO price would affirm to resume riding on bull trend provided trading above resistance levels at RM2540 and RM RM2550 regions. However, it’s crucial in order for support levels at RM2525 and 2500 were not violated in the coming trading session so that FCPO price were not fall into correction phase.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 30th Apr 2010

FKLI Apr Futures contract rose 5.5 points higher to close at 1333.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 3,130 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded within tight range as Nikkei closed to trading while Hang Seng were traded lower during trading sessions.
FKLI seems consolidate within range from 1334.5 and 1331.5 throughout entire trading sessions where 1331.5 is 50% Fibonacci support levels in the hourly price chart. Technically, FKLI seems congesting for wave 3 upsurge provided short term support levels at 1331.5 and 1328 were not violated in the coming trading sessions. However, it’s crucial for FKLI traded price to penetrate resistance level at 1340 and 1346 in order to further affirm on the recently upsurge.

Palm Oil Drops a Third Day, Tracking Crude on Recovery Concerns

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil slumped for a third day as shares plunged and crude oil declined amid concern that the debt problems in Greece and Spain may weaken the euro and derail the world’s economic recovery.

The contract for July delivery fell as much as 1.1 percent to 2,520 ringgit ($786) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange and paused at 2,525 ringgit at the midday break.

“Crude palm oil seems to be trading in line with oil,” said Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, a commodities analyst at The Royal Bank of Scotland Asia Securities (Singapore) Pte.

Palm oil has tracked crude’s weekly movements for the past 11 weeks as confidence over an economic recovery fueled optimism energy demand would rise to boost demand for biofuels.

Crude oil prices in New York have fallen 2.3 percent this week amid concerns over the euro and the slump in equities. It traded at $83.17 a barrel at 11:59 a.m. Singapore time. The MSCI World Index declined for a third day, chalking up losses of 2.8 percent during the period.

In China, the largest consumer of edible oils, Dalian palm oil dropped a second day, losing 0.4 percent to pause at 6,938 yuan ($1,016) a ton at the 11:30 a.m. trading break. Dalian soybean oil lost 0.4 percent to 7,838 yuan per ton.

China’s soybean imports between April and June may reach a record 14 million tons, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said yesterday. Inbound shipments of palm oil may total 318,000 tons in April, it said.

Soybean oil in Chicago for July delivery rose 0.3 percent to 39.04 cents a pound for the first gain in four days, putting its premium over palm oil at $72.25 a ton, according to data on the Bloomberg. Yesterday, the premium narrowed to a three-week low of $66.32 a ton, less than half the 12-month average of $130.45, the data shows.

Crude Oil Trades Above $83 After Fed Pledges to Keep Rates Low

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $83 a barrel after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep U.S. interest rates low and a government report showed refineries operating at the highest level in almost two years.

Oil gained 1 percent yesterday as the Federal Open Market Committee said economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Gasoline supplies fell 1.24 million barrels last week, a report from the Energy Information Administration showed. They were forecast to increase, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“The Fed seemed to re-emphasize the strength in the U.S. economy, the commentary really focusing more on the positives of the recovery, and that’s probably had an impact,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “The EIA data was positive in the sense that gasoline stocks fell unexpectedly.”

Crude oil for June delivery was at $83.30 a barrel, up 8 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:04 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract rose 78 cents to settle at $83.22.

The Federal Reserve’s pledge and better-than-estimated earnings sent U.S. equities higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.7 percent to 1,191.36.

Refineries operated at 89 percent of capacity, up 3 percentage points from the prior week and the highest level since July 2008, the Energy Department report showed.

Crude Supplies

U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 1.96 million barrels to 357.8 million last week, the highest level since June, the report showed. Stockpiles were forecast to climb 1 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Imports increased 0.7 percent to 9.68 million barrels a day, the highest since September.

Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, climbed 2.94 million barrels to 151.8 million last week. A 1.5 million-barrel gain was estimated in the survey.

“The builds in crude and distillates mean that the fundamental situation is getting worse in the U.S.,” National Australia Bank’s Westmore said. “Overall, I don’t think this is a positive weekly read for the fundamentals.”

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said crude oil prices are at “sustainable levels” as the global economy recovers from the worst slump since the 1930s. He said the world economy is entering into a “new growth trajectory.”

The dollar declined yesterday after the Fed announcement, bolstering the appeal of commodities. The U.S. currency traded little changed at $1.3195 per euro at 10:05 a.m., after falling 0.4 percent yesterday.

Brent crude oil for June settlement traded at $86.24 a barrel, up 8 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:05 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract rose 38 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $86.16.

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Oil Extends Slump After Greece Ratings Cut, Drop in Equities

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a third day as global equities plunged and the dollar advanced after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services cut its sovereign credit ratings on Greece to junk.

Oil dropped 2.1 percent yesterday as credit downgrades in Greece and Portugal, the euro region’s most indebted nations, escalated Europe’s debt crisis. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell the most since Feb. 4. Crude supplies in the U.S. rose by 5.34 million barrels last week, according to the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute.

“The ongoing Greece bailout situation is only putting more and more pressure on the euro currency to trade lower,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital Advisors in Seattle. “A drop in the equity markets tends to push the price of oil lower. Oil stocks in the U.S. are at very high levels.”

Crude oil for June delivery fell 74 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $81.70 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:37 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $1.76 to $82.44.

Greece’s credit rating was cut by three levels to BB+ from BBB+, the first time a euro member has lost its investment grade since the currency’s 1999 debut. S&P also warned that bondholders could receive as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if Greece restructures its debt. The ratings company also reduced Portugal by two steps to A- from A+.

The S&P 500 slumped 2.3 percent to 1,183.71 in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 213.04 points, or 1.9 percent, to 10,991.99.

Crude Supplies

A U.S. Energy Department report today will probably show crude inventories climbed 1.05 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The report will probably show gasoline inventories gained 800,000 barrels from 225 million the prior week, the survey showed. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, likely rose 1.5 million barrels. Refinery operating rates were probably unchanged after five weeks of increases.

The Petroleum Institute collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

The dollar traded little changed at $1.3172 per euro at 8:31 a.m. Sydney time, after gaining 1.6 percent yesterday. A stronger U.S. currency reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Brent crude for June settlement lost $1.05, or 1.2 percent, to $85.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 28th Apr 2010

FCPO 3rd month July futures contract traded RM10 lower to close at RM2550 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 10,144 lots traded in the market. FCPO price were wild during trading sessions as crude oil and soybean oil electronic trading were traded contradicting with overnight settlement mark which directly lead FCPO trading in wider range.
FCPO price topped at 300% Fibonacci resistance levels at RM2582 regions before plunge lower to find support around RM2540 regions. Technically, FCPO price seems possible to complete 300% Fibonacci projection levels at RM2582 regions before sharp fall in attempt to find support at RM2524 and RM2510 regions; 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci support levels, on minor wave 4 count. However, it’s crucial in order for RM2490 support region not to be violated in the coming trading sessions in order short term uptrend to remain intact. Resistance levels were seen at RM2587 and RM2618; both are 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 28th Apr 2010

FKLI Apr Futures contract rose 4.5 points lower to close at 1338.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 7,062 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded within tight range as it’s near to end of month for rollover position activity while regional indices were traded mix during trading sessions.
FKLI failed to penetrate resistance levels at 1344.5 and search for firm support during trading sessions after penetrate previous low levels at 1339 regions. Technically, FKLI seem flirting with the support trend line in the hourly price chart during entire trading sessions despite FKLI traded price struggling to seek for support levels at 1334 and 1331; both are 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci support levels. However, FKLI traded price must overcome resistance levels at 1344.5 and 1349 in order for Bull trend to resume intact.

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Oil Extends Declines on Stronger Dollar, Forecast Supply Gain

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil extended declines after the dollar strengthened and analysts forecast an increase in U.S. crude supplies.

Oil dropped 1.1 percent yesterday as the greenback advanced against the euro, limiting investors’ need for commodities to hedge against inflation. Crude inventories probably rose 1 million barrels last week, according to analysts surveyed before an Energy Department report tomorrow.

“The market is still under the spell of macroeconomic factors like economic optimism, the dollar and high liquidity,” said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The situation in Greece has an indirect impact on the oil markets through the U.S. dollar and equity markets.”

Crude oil for June delivery dropped as much as 56 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $83.64 a barrel and was at $83.98 at 8:32 a.m. Sydney time, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, the contract fell 92 cents to $84.20.

Oil declined yesterday as the dollar advanced against the euro on concern the Greek bailout plan faces hurdles as donor countries begin ratifying the aid package. The U.S. currency was little changed at 1.3399 per euro at 8:11 a.m. Sydney time.

Tomorrow’s U.S. government report will probably show gasoline inventories climbed 500,000 barrels from 225 million the prior week, according to analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1.25 million barrels.

Refinery operating rates are estimated to have been unchanged last week, after five weeks of gains, the survey shows.

Brent crude for June settlement declined 42 cents, or 0.5 percent, to end the session at $86.83 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Soybeans Fall From 3-Month High on Lower U.S. Exports

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans fell from a three-month high on signs that importers are slowing shipments from the U.S., the biggest exporter.

U.S. officials inspected 8.029 million bushels for export in the week ended April 22, less than half the 16.362 million a week earlier, data from the Department of Agriculture show. China accounted for 30 percent of the total, down from 44 percent a week earlier, the USDA said. The combined output in Brazil and Argentina, the biggest exporters after the U.S., will jump 35 percent, the USDA said.

“The drop in U.S. exports was disappointing,” said Mark Schultz, the chief analyst for Northstar Commodity Investment Co. in Minneapolis. “Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans may be shifting to newly harvested crops in South America.”

Soybean futures for July delivery fell 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $10.09 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price touched $10.20, the highest level since Jan. 11. Before today, the most-active futures rose 7.3 percent this month on increased Chinese demand for U.S. oilseeds after farmers in South America withheld supplies for higher prices.

The soybean crop in the U.S. was valued at $31.8 billion last year, second only to corn, government figures show.

Daily Market Commentary for FKLI & FCPO 27th Apr 2010

FCPO July Futures contract traded RM20 higher as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2560 with a total of 8,411 lots traded in the market. FCPO price were traded higher as soybean oil and crude oil were traded higher during electronic trading despite weak export figure was released during trading sessions.
FCPO price continue to trade higher after penetrate previous high level at RM2540 before manage attempt to test resistance levels at RM2564 regions; 78.6% Fibonacci resistance levels. Technically, FCPO price seems strong trading upwards without any sign of reversal towards the south where support levels were seen at RM2540 and RM2500 regions. However, FCPO price would anticipate great selling activity around resistance levels at RM2594 and RM2618 regions.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 27th Apr 2010

FKLI April Futures contract was traded 3 points higher as compare to previous trading session to close at 1343 levels with a total of 5,382 lots traded in the market. FKLI was recover before end of trading sessions from early loss despite regional indices were traded higher during trading session.
FKLI retrace 61.8% Fibonacci support levels at 1338.5 regions and hold well above previous resistance trend line in the hourly price chart. Technically, FKLI seems form multiple pull back to gather strength for upside break up provided support levels at 1336 and 1327.5 were not violated during trading sessions. However, FKLI would expected to anticipate some great selling pressure around resistance levels at 1349 to 1350.5 regions while next nearest resistance was seen at 1367 regions.

India Palm Oil Imports to Ebb on China, Argentina Row

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil imports by India, the largest buyer, may drop this year as buyers switch to soybean oil to profit from China’s ban on shipments of the commodity from Argentina, the biggest global supplier.

Purchases may fall to 6.7 million metric tons in the year to Sept. 30, from 6.9 million tons a year ago, Thomas Mielke, executive director of Oil World, said in an interview in Dubai yesterday. Soybean oil shipments may rise to as much as 1.5 million tons from 1.06 million tons a year ago, he said.

Lower purchases of palm oil by India, which overtook China as the top buyer of the commodity in 2009, may pressure prices that touched an 11-week low on April 19 in Malaysia. Sales from Malaysia to the South Asian country slumped 81 percent in the first 20 days of April compared with the same period in March, surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said last week.

“The price of soybean oil is attractive because of the lack of Chinese buying,” he said. “That’s impacting palm oil as India is buying less.”

The price-premium that soybean oil commands over palm oil declined 15 percent to $81 a ton on April 23, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The premium has narrowed from a 12-month average of $131 a ton, making soybean oil more affordable.

“India has stepped into the space created by very competitive Argentinean soya oil,” Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd., said in a copy of his speech prepared for delivery the conference in Dubai. Godrej is one of India’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils.

‘Step Up’

Soybean-oil purchases by India may reach 400,000 to 450,000 tons in the quarter ending June, up from 330,000 tons a year ago, Mielke said, as the country “steps up” imports.

Palm oil for July delivery rose 2 percent to 2,540 ringgit ($797) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivative Exchange on April 23. The vegetable oil soared 57 percent last year on demand from India and China, the biggest buyers. July-delivery soybean oil gained 0.8 percent to 39.33 cents a pound in Chicago.

China, the largest user of soybean oil, suspended purchases of the commodity from Argentina this month on quality standards. Argentina supplies about three-quarters of China’s demand.

The Asian nation can’t turn to Brazil or the U.S. to make up for a lack of Argentine supplies, Argentina’s farm secretary Lorenzo Basso said April 20 in a telephone interview from Buenos Aires. Prices in the U.S. are too high and Brazil does not have enough capacity to cover China’s demand, he said.

The U.S. is the largest exporter of soybeans. Brazil and Argentina are the second- and third-biggest growers.

India’s total vegetable-oils purchases may reach a record 9 million tons in the year to Oct. 31, Mistry said in an interview on April 7. Imports were 8.66 million tons year last year, with palm oil accounting for more than 80 percent of the total.

Crude Oil Trades Above $85 on Speculation Demand Recovering

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on speculation demand will increase as the world economy recovers from recession.

A Conference Board report due tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, will probably show consumer confidence climbed for a second month to a three-month high. Iraq, OPEC’s third-largest producer, will resume oil shipments on its Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan pipeline mid-week once blast repairs are completed, North Oil Co. said yesterday.

“Data on the economic side, especially in the U.S., are getting much, much better than expected,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo. “The gasoline demand season is just starting in the U.S. so I’m not really pessimistic about the high inventory levels” there, he said.

Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $85.42 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $85.25 at 8:42 a.m. in Tokyo.

The contract climbed 1.7 percent to $85.12 on April 23, the highest settlement since April 15, after government reports showed that U.S. sales of new homes surged in March and orders for non-transport durable goods climbed. Commodities also rallied as the dollar fell against the euro for the first time in seven days.

A Commerce Department report showed that sales of U.S. new homes increased 27 percent, the most since April 1963. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years, excluding cars and aircraft, climbed 2.8 percent last month, the most since the recession began in December 2007, the department said.

Rally, Inventories

The June oil contract increased 0.5 percent last week and has gained 1.2 percent this month. Prices rose even after a report showed U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed 1.89 million barrels to 355.9 million in the week ended April 16.

While the overall level of inventories is high, the pattern of movements is similar to recent years, Astmax’s Emori said. The direction from here will be more important than the absolute level, and oil is likely to be sustained between $80 and $90 a barrel for the rest of the year, he said.

“Ninety could be reachable, but over $90 to $95 would probably be difficult unless there are more strong factors on the fundamental side appearing,” he said.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their bets on rising oil prices last week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity, increased 7 percent to 121,475 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said last week.

Brent crude oil for June settlement rose 15 cents to $87.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It climbed 1.8 percent to $87.25 on April 23.

Crude Oil Trades Above $85 on Speculation Demand Recovering

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on speculation demand will increase as the world economy recovers from recession.

A Conference Board report due tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, will probably show consumer confidence climbed for a second month to a three-month high. Iraq, OPEC’s third-largest producer, will resume oil shipments on its Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan pipeline mid-week once blast repairs are completed, North Oil Co. said yesterday.

“Data on the economic side, especially in the U.S., are getting much, much better than expected,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo. “The gasoline demand season is just starting in the U.S. so I’m not really pessimistic about the high inventory levels” there, he said.

Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $85.42 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $85.25 at 8:42 a.m. in Tokyo.

The contract climbed 1.7 percent to $85.12 on April 23, the highest settlement since April 15, after government reports showed that U.S. sales of new homes surged in March and orders for non-transport durable goods climbed. Commodities also rallied as the dollar fell against the euro for the first time in seven days.

A Commerce Department report showed that sales of U.S. new homes increased 27 percent, the most since April 1963. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years, excluding cars and aircraft, climbed 2.8 percent last month, the most since the recession began in December 2007, the department said.

Rally, Inventories

The June oil contract increased 0.5 percent last week and has gained 1.2 percent this month. Prices rose even after a report showed U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed 1.89 million barrels to 355.9 million in the week ended April 16.

While the overall level of inventories is high, the pattern of movements is similar to recent years, Astmax’s Emori said. The direction from here will be more important than the absolute level, and oil is likely to be sustained between $80 and $90 a barrel for the rest of the year, he said.

“Ninety could be reachable, but over $90 to $95 would probably be difficult unless there are more strong factors on the fundamental side appearing,” he said.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their bets on rising oil prices last week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity, increased 7 percent to 121,475 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said last week.

Brent crude oil for June settlement rose 15 cents to $87.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It climbed 1.8 percent to $87.25 on April 23.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 26th Apr 2010

FCPO July Futures contract traded RM50 higher as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2540 with a total of 8,392 lots traded in the market. FCPO price were traded higher during trading sessions as soybean oil and crude oil were traded higher during overnight and electronic trading.
FCPO price penetrate previous resistance levels at RM2500 and RM2525 region and settle at RM2540; 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level from RM2594 to RM2455. Technically, FCPO price seems reverse towards upside since traded price manage to hold above RM2500 regions. However, FCPO price would further affirm bullish provided FCPO price manage to penetrate resistance trend line in the hourly chart at RM2540 and RM2564; both are 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci resistance levels. Support levels were seen at RM2500 and RM2455.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 26th Apr 2010

FKLI April Futures contract was traded 2 points lower as compare to previous trading session to close at 1340 levels with a total of 3,063 lots traded in the market. FKLI was trading sideways during trading session as regional indices were mainly trading lower despite overnight Dow Jones was settled slightly higher.
FKLI retrace slightly to 1336, 38.2% Fibonacci support levels before to launch the 9th attempt to penetrate resistance trend line in the hourly chart. Technically, FKLI would affirm resume in bull trend provided traded price must be capable to hold above resistance levels at 1344.5 and 1350.5. However, FKLI would encounter reverse trend once support levels at 1327.5 and 1322 were violated, in the coming trading sessions.