FCPOI Daily Commentary for 2nd Apr 2010

FCPO 3rd month June futures contract traded RM13 lower to close at RM2543 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 12,361 lots traded in the market. FCPO price was traded within tight range despite crude oil and soybean oil both were traded firm during trading sessions.
FCPO price were traded sideways near ending after found support around RM2530 level and rebound towards 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels at RM2550 regions. Technically, FCPO price would anticipate further selling pressure provided support levels at RM2530 and RM2515 regions fails to hold against the selling pressure. However, FCPO traded price must not be trading above resistance levels at RM2562 and RM2580 regions in order for correction phase to remain intact.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 2nd Apr 2010

FKLI Mar Futures contract traded 11.5 point higher to close at 1338 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 6,547 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded sideways during entire trading sessions after traded higher in the earlier sessions as regional indices and Dow Jones electronic trading were traded higher during trading sessions.
FKLI tested previous resistance trend in the daily price chart at 1338 regions after manage to penetrate above previous resistance levels at 1326.5 regions. Technically, FKLI would indicates bullish sentiment after manage mark new high at 1338.5 levels; 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci resistance levels. FKLI would remain bullish provided support levels at 1327 and 1314 regions; both are 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci support levels, were not violated in the coming trading sessions. However, resistances levels were anticipated around 1347 and 1359 regions.

Oil Falls From 17-Month High After Increase in U.S. Stockpiles

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil dropped from a 17-month high after a government report showed a larger-than-forecast increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and an unexpected gain in gasoline supplies.

Oil declined for the first time in four days after an Energy Department report showed crude inventories rose 2.93 million barrels last week. It was the ninth straight advance, the most since May. Supplies were forecast to climb by 2.5 million barrels, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The DOE data wasn’t overly supportive of prices,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There’s very little improvement. We’re seeing oversupply in the U.S. market. For the next leg-up in oil we’re probably going to need to see some more evidence of improvement in OECD demand.”

Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $83.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $83.36 at 9:31 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to $83.76, the highest settlement since Oct. 9, 2008, after the dollar fell against the euro for the third time in four days.

The dollar dropped to $1.3550 per euro at 9:38 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3510 in New York yesterday. A weaker dollar bolsters the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

There will be no Nymex futures trading tomorrow because of the Good Friday holiday.

Gasoline Supplies

Gasoline stockpiles increased 313,000 barrels to 224.9 million last week, the Energy Department report showed. A 1.85 million-barrel decrease was forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ crude- oil production slipped from a 14-month high in March, led by an Iraqi cut, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Output fell 30,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 percent, to an average 29.205 million barrels a day, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Members with production quotas, all except Iraq, raised output by 55,000 barrels to 26.84 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008 and 1.995 million above their target.

Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut payrolls in March, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.

‘Slow Recovery’

The 23,000 decline was the smallest in two years and followed a revised 24,000 drop the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed yesterday. Over the previous six months, ADP’s initial figures have overstated the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payroll losses by as little as 2,000 in February to as much as 151,000 in November.

“The ADP employment report doesn’t auger well for Friday’s non-farm payrolls,” CWA’s Hassall said. “That is a reminder of a very slow recovery in the U.S.”

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipate the government’s report tomorrow will show payrolls increased by 184,000, in part due to temporary hiring by the federal government to conduct the 2010 census and because of better weather compared with February.

Brent crude oil for May settlement fell as much as 40 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $82.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $82.33 at 9:35 a.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, the contract increased $1.42, or 1.8 percent, to end the session at $82.70.

Dollar, Yen Fall as Asian Recovery Signs Cut Demand for Refuge

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar and yen fell versus the euro as signs Asian economies are picking up damped demand for the Japanese and U.S. currencies as refuges.

The dollar dropped against 12 of its 16 major counterparts before a report today forecast to show China’s manufacturing accelerated in March and after data showed confidence improved among Japan’s industrial companies. New Zealand’s dollar fell for the first day in six after the International Monetary Fund said the currency was overvalued and may decline as the nation’s interest-rate advantage over the U.S. narrows.

“The rebound in Japan is doing OK and the overall recovery in Asia is benefiting from China and India,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd. “There’s a bias for the dollar and the yen to weaken.”

The dollar fell to $1.3550 per euro as of 9:38 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3510 in New York yesterday. The yen dropped to 126.57 per euro from 126.27. Earlier, it touched 126.63, the weakest level since Feb. 3. The dollar fetched 93.40 yen from 93.47 yen. It touched 93.64, the strongest since Jan. 8.

The so-called kiwi fell 0.2 percent to 70.94 U.S. cents. It dropped 0.2 percent to 66.26 yen.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55 in March from 52 in February, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed confidence among Japanese large manufacturers was minus 14 in the three months ended in March, up from minus 24 in the prior quarter, matching the median forecast of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 1st Apr 2010

FCPO June Futures contract traded RM6 higher as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2551 with a total of 9,959 lots traded in the market. FCPO was traded higher during trading sessions as crude oil and soybean oil were traded higher during electronic trading sessions.
FCPO price retrace 61.8% Fibonacci support levels at RM2529 regions before manage to search for resistance levels at RM2560 regions at 61.8% Fibonacci support levels. Technically, FCPO price possible to complete rebound phase provided further resistance levels at RM2580 and RM2606 regions were not violated in the coming trading sessions. However, support levels at RM2530 and RM2516 must be violated in the coming trading sessions in order for the down south correction wave to resume.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 1st Apr 2010

FKLI March Futures contract was traded 1.5 point lower as compare to previous trading session to close at 1316.5 levels with a total of 2,237 lots traded in the market. FKLI was mainly traded sideways during entire trading sessions despite regional indices were traded lower while Dow Jones electronic trading were merely unchanged.
FKLI consolidate within range from 1316.5 and 1320 regions; coincidently 0% and 78.6% Fibonacci support and resistance levels in the hourly price chart. Technically, FKLI has yet shown any bullish sign in the hourly continuous chart but April contract were trade higher during trading sessions as failed in attempt to penetrate nearest support levels at 1310.5 and 1300 regions. However, FKLI would affirm bullish sentiment once resistance levels at 1328.5 and 1337 fails to resistance price to trade higher in the coming trading sessions.

OPEC Output Slipped From a 14-Month High on Iraq, Survey Shows

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ crude-oil production slipped from a 14- month high in March, led by an Iraqi cut, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Output fell 30,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 percent, to an average 29.205 million barrels a day, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Members with production quotas, all except Iraq, raised output by 55,000 barrels to 26.84 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008 and 1.995 million above their target.

OPEC cut its quotas by 4.2 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day beginning in January 2009 as fuel demand tumbled during the worst recession since World War II. The group left the targets unchanged at a meeting March 17 in Vienna.

“With oil near $82 it’s going to be hard to get them to cut back by much,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

Compliance among the 11 members with output quotas fell to 53 percent in March from 54 percent in February. All members exceeded their production limits. Last month’s total for all members was the highest since December 2008.

Crude oil has risen 11 percent since the beginning of February to $82.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“OPEC gets nervous when prices look like they are heading to $85 a barrel,” said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “They won’t hesitate to put more oil on the market if they believe prices will go much higher. We’re seeing a gradual erosion in quota discipline.”

Iraqi Production

Iraqi output dropped 85,000 barrels a day to 2.365 million in March, the biggest decrease in OPEC. February production was revised 65,000 barrels a day higher.

Nigeria’s production rose 70,000 barrels to 2.01 million barrels a day, the largest increase in the group. Africa’s biggest oil producer exceeded its target by 337,000 barrels a day. Attacks by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta and other armed groups on Nigeria’s oil industry have cut the nation’s exports by more than 20 percent since 2006.

“Neither Nigeria nor Iraq is a stable, safe, country,” Mueller said. “It’s no surprise that their production figures are erratic.”

Soybeans Rise as Cargo Delays in Argentina May Boost U.S. Sales

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose for the third straight session as a strike by port workers in Argentina, the world’s third-largest producer, threatened to disrupt exports of newly harvested crops.

Processing plants at two ports on the Parana River remained shut yesterday as striking workers blocked access to the facilities, La Nacion said. Argentina is the biggest exporter of animal feed and cooking oil made from soybeans. Soybean-meal futures in Chicago rose, heading for the first monthly gain since November.

“Soybeans and soybean meal are rising because of the uncertainty about settling the labor unrest in Argentina,” said Mike Zuzolo, the president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana. “People are concerned about Argentina meeting export commitments.”

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 6.5 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $9.74 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price gained 2.7 percent in the prior two days and is down 7.1 percent this year.

Soybean-meal futures for May delivery rose $6.20, or 2.2 percent, to $283.10 for 2,000 pounds on the CBOT. The most- active futures are up 4.9 percent this month. On March 15, the commodity touched the lowest level since December 2008 on forecasts that production in Argentina and Brazil will surge.

China Soyoil Outlook

Soybean oil fell the most in more than two weeks on speculation that China, the world’s biggest vegetable-oil buyer, may toughen standards on imported vegetable oil to absorb a domestic supply glut.

The China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By-Products, a trade body affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce, will tomorrow brief a group of importers on proposed stricter inspection standards for imported soy oil, according to four executives, who declined to be identified before the official announcement.

China’s soybean-oil imports jumped 65 percent in the first two months of this year. Reduced imports of soy oil, which China mainly buys from Argentina, may reduce demand for higher-cost supplies from the U.S., said Charlie Sernatinger, a vice president at Fortis Clearing Americas LLC in Chicago.

“Potential Chinese restrictions would be negative for U.S. soybean-oil exports,” Sernatinger said.

Soybean-oil futures for May delivery fell 0.6 cent, or 1.5 percent, to 38.67 cents a pound on the CBOT, the largest drop for the most-active contract since March 15. The price has fallen 2.6 percent this month.

The soybean crop in the U.S. was valued at $31.8 billion last year, second only to corn, government figures show. The U.S. is the leading exporter of the commodities.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 31st March 2010

FCPO June Futures contract traded RM25 higher as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2545 with a total of 12,139 lots traded in the market. FCPO was trade in wide range as soybean oil and crude oil were traded firm during overnight and electronic trading.
FCPO price manage to reach 161.8% Fibonacci support levels at RM2501 regions after penetrate previous support levels at RM2520 regions before rebound towards 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels at RM2550 regions. Technically, FCPO price must be overcome resistance level at RM2550 and RM2580 in order to remain in correction phase where next nearest support were seen at RM2463 and RM2500 regions.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 31st March 2010

FKLI March Futures contract was traded 6.5 point lower as compare to previous trading session to close at 1318 levels with a total of 5,853 lots traded in the market. FKLI plunge lower during trading sessions despite regional indices and Dow Jones overnight trading were traded upwards.
FKLI plunge lower after twice attempt to penetrate resistance levels at 1326 regions failed. Technically, FKLI seems traded towards south as effort to overcome resistance levels at 1326 and 1337 failed in 3 attempts. However, FKLI would fall with further convincing provided support levels at 1310.5 and 1288 fail to overcome the selling pressure.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 30th Mar 2010

FCPO 3rd month June futures contract traded RM14 lower to close at RM2520 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 10,112 lots traded in the market. FCPO price traded lower during trading as soybean oil and crude oil were trade weak during overnight trading despite electronic trading were traded firm.
FCPO price plunge lower towards support levels at RM2520 regions after long consolidation within range RM2540 and 2550 regions. Technically, FCPO price seems attempt to search lower support levels at RM2520 and RM2463 region after previous support levels RM2528 fails to hold against the selling pressure. However, FCPO price must not trading above resistance levels at RM2557 and RM2580 regions in order for FCPO price to remain trading in correction phase.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 30th Mar 2010

FKLI Mar Futures contract traded 3.5 point higher to close at 1324.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 10,335 lots traded in the market. FKLI was mainly traded sideways during entire trading sessions despite regional indices and Dow Jones futures electronic trading were traded firm during trading sessions.
FKLI tested resistance levels at 1326.5 regions; 78.6% Fibonacci resistance levels. Technically, FKLI has yet to affirm to trade south provided support levels at 1319 and 1310.5 were violated in the coming trading sessions in order to confirm 1326 was seen at wave B were wave C was expected to complete objective price at 1265, 123.6% Fibonacci support levels. However, FKLI must not trade above resistance levels at 1328 and 1337 in order for correction phase to take in place.

Gold Rises Most in Week on Haven-Asset Demand, Korea Concern

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rose the most in a week on speculation that demand will increase amid escalating debt concerns in Europe and after a South Korean naval vessel sank near the border with North Korea.

“The bailout of Greece accomplished by the Europeans is only temporary,” said Dennis Gartman, an economist and the Gartman Letter’s editor. “The future of the euro remains dreadfully weak. That means those central banks who had been buying euros as a reservable asset, but are still fearful of owning more dollars, have no choice but to move toward gold.”

The euro gained as much as 1.1 percent against the dollar. European leaders endorsed a Franco-German proposal to help Greece with a mix of International Monetary Fund and bilateral loans. Gold priced in euros reached a record on March 5.

Gold futures for June delivery climbed $11.30, or 1 percent, to $1,105.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since March 16. The price fell 0.2 percent this week.

The euro rebounded from a 10-month low after European leaders put the IMF on standby to help debt-stricken Greece and sought to reduce concerns that divisions on the issue would escalate the nation’s fiscal crisis.

The Greek plan “will no doubt give risk sentiment a short- term boost and is partially behind the gains with gold,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report. Concern that government debt may expand “will continue to prompt diversification away from fiat currencies and toward more tangible assets, particularly precious metals,” he said.

Korea Concern

Investors also bought gold after the Korean incident. A South Korean patrol vessel sank off the island of Baengnyeong in the Yellow Sea. The cause wasn’t immediately clear. The sinking prompted President Lee Myung Bak to meet with security officials in Seoul.

“We had an oversold condition and when the Korea news hit the desks, gold took off,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago.

A rebound by the dollar may limit the metal’s gains, analysts said.

“Gold does not look attractive,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “The dollar is the cream of the currencies. The major problem for the dollar in the past few years has been the strength of the euro, and that is no longer the case.”

Gold rallied 24 percent last year as the euro gained 2.4 percent against the dollar.

Also in New York, silver futures for May delivery rose 16.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $16.906 an ounce on the Comex, down 0.7 percent for the week.

Platinum futures for July delivery fell $11.10, or 0.7 percent, to $1,600.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, extending this week’s decline to 0.5 percent. Palladium for June delivery gained $2.70, or 0.6 percent, to $455.30 an ounce on the Nymex, down 2.8 percent this week.

Oil Climbs From Two-Week Low on Speculation Demand Improving

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed from a two- week low on speculation demand will increase as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II.

A report today in the U.S., the world’s largest oil user, will probably show personal spending rose for a fifth month in February, according to a Bloomberg news survey of economists. Major producers and consumers will this week try to agree on ways to reduce oil-price volatility, International Energy Forum Secretary-General Noe van Hulst said yesterday.

“We do seem to be getting some support for prices around that $80 a barrel level,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “We’re seeing oil fairly range-bound, which isn’t too surprising, and we’re just not getting enough underlying strength in the crude oil market fundamentals to really give it a shove higher.”

Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $80.39 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $80.26 at 7:15 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract dropped 0.7 percent to $80 on March 26, the lowest close in almost two weeks, after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded less in the fourth quarter than analysts had estimated. Prices fell 1.2 percent for the week as U.S. crude oil stockpiles surged to a seven-month high and the rising dollar reduced the appeal of commodity investments.

Stronger Dollar

While the long-term bias is for prices to go higher, the prospect of a stronger dollar may weigh on oil and commodities in the short-term, Hassall said. Stronger growth in the U.S. may be needed before employment and consumer spending recovers, he said.

“It is looking like a protracted and uneven recovery over there and Europe isn’t looking any better,” he said. “The U.S. consumer sector looks particularly weak still. It’s not a particularly bright outlook for the U.S. It looks like they’ve turned a corner, but it’s going to be very slow.”

The U.S. currency fell against the euro today after European leaders agreed to a rescue plan for Greece. The dollar fell to $1.3446 to the euro in early Asian trading today, from $1.3410 in New York last week.

Brent crude oil for May settlement rose 21 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $79.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It fell 0.4 percent to $79.29 on March 26.

New York oil futures have gained 1 percent this year, as global equities declined early in the period and the rising dollar slowed investor demand for oil and metals as investment havens.

Price Volatility

Prices jumped 78 percent last year after plunging to $32.40 a barrel in December 2008, the lowest in more than four years. New York futures reached a record $147.27 in July 2008.

“There is great acknowledgement, more now than there ever was, that this kind of volatility is not good for producers or consumers,” Van Hulst, secretary-general of the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum, said in Cancun, Mexico, yesterday. Better supply and demand data from developing nations are among measures that may improve transparency in global oil markets, he said.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators last week reduced their bets on rising oil prices for the first time since early February, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity, fell 9.9 percent to 111,919 contracts in the week ended March 23, the Washington- based commission said in a report.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 29th March 2010

FCPO June Futures contract traded RM41 lower as compare to previous trading sessions to close at RM2534 with a total of 9,524 lots traded in the market. FCPO price traded wild during trading sessions as soybean oil and crude oil were trade firm during electronic trading while overnight trading were traded weak.
FCPO price manage to rebound 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels at RM2663 regions before plunge lower in the coming trading sessions towards support levels at RM2530 regions. Technically, FCPO price seem continue to search for firm support levels at RM2520 and RM2463, both were 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci support levels, before the long term bull trend to resume higher. However, resistance levels were seen at RM2565 and RM2600 regions. Failure to hold FCPO price to trade below the resistance level shall indicates bullish sentiment in the coming trading sessions.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 29th March 2010

FKLI March Futures contract was traded 3.5 point higher as compare to previous trading session to close at 1321 levels with a total of 7,334 lots traded in the market. FKLI was traded higher during trading sessions as regional indices were traded higher during trading sessions.
FKLI penetrate resistance levels at 1318 and continue to search for higher resistance levels. Technically, FKLI seems intended to reach higher resistance levels at 1326 levels; 78.6% Fibonacci resistance levels in the coming trading sessions. Resistance levels at 1326 and 1337 seen crucial to affirm FKLI to remain correction phase. However, short term support seen at 1317 and 1310.5 regions. Failure to FKLI trading price above support levels shall indicates further trading towards south.