Crude Oil Declines to Six-Week Low Amid Signs U.S. Recovery Is Faltering

Crude oil traded little changed near a six-week low as forecasts that U.S. home sales probably plunged in July added to concerns the economic recovery in the biggest oil-consuming nation is faltering.

Purchases of new and existing houses dropped 12 percent to a 5.01 million annual pace, the lowest since March 2009, according to the median forecast of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Oil slipped 1.3 percent on Aug. 20, a day after the Labor Department said weekly claims for unemployment benefits climbed to the highest level since November.

“Concerns over U.S. growth weighed on oil demand sentiment,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note. “Concerns over the U.S. economy also revived risk aversion, which firmed the U.S. dollar and weakened the euro.”

Crude oil for October delivery was at $73.87 a barrel, up 5 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:27 a.m. Sydney time. The September contract fell 97 cents to $73.46 on Aug. 20, when it expired. Futures dropped 2.6 percent last week.

The dollar traded at $1.2691 a euro at 9:28 a.m. Sydney time, from $1.2712 on Aug. 20. A stronger U.S. currency limits the need of investors for commodities to hedge against inflation.

Brent crude for October settlement traded at $74.41 a barrel, up 15 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange at 8:38 a.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped $1.04, or 1.4 percent, to $74.26 on Aug. 20.

Oil Trades Near 6-Week Low as U.S. Jobless Claims Prompt Recovery Concerns

Crude oil traded little changed near a six-week low after falling as increased U.S. jobless claims and a contraction in manufacturing added to concern the economic rebound in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country is slowing.

Oil, which is down 1.3 percent for the week, fell yesterday after the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since November. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index dropped to the lowest reading since July 2009. Total U.S. petroleum inventories are the highest in at least 20 years, Energy Department figures show.

“Sentiment and the fundamental news at the moment is still quite bearish, and I think that will weigh on the market and probably see prices lower,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “I think $70 to $68 is on the cards.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $74.37 a barrel, down 6 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:06 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell 99 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $74.43, the lowest settlement price since July 7. Futures are up 2.6 percent from a year ago.

Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 in the week ended Aug. 14, U.S. Labor Department figures showed. Claims exceeded all estimates of economists surveyed and compared with the median forecast of 478,000.

Brent crude oil for October settlement was little changed at $75.21 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London at 10:05 a.m. Sydney time. It slipped $1.17, or 1.5 percent, to end the session at $75.30 a barrel yesterday.

Equities Decline

“U.S. stocks tumbled on the back of weaker-than-expected economic data, with unemployment claims unexpectedly jumping to the highest level in 9 months and the Philadelphia Fed survey showed manufacturing had shrunk,” Ben Potter, a market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne, said in an e-mailed note.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to minus 7.7 this month. Negative readings signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. Economists forecast the measure would rise to 7, according to the median of 58 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.7 percent in New York, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4 percent. The dollar climbed yesterday, reducing the appeal of commodities as an investment.

A U.S. Energy Department report on Aug. 18 showed that total petroleum stockpiles climbed 5.34 million barrels to 1.13 billion in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest level since at least 1990. Supplies of crude oil fell 818,000 barrels to 354.2 million barrels, according to the Energy Department report. Gasoline stockpiles dropped 39,000 barrels to 223.3 million.

Crude Oil Trades Near Five-Week Low on Signs Economic Growth Is Faltering

Crude oil traded near a five-week low after Asian equities declined, New York manufacturers’ orders fell and U.S. homebuilders turned more pessimistic, increasing concern that global economic growth is faltering.

Oil dropped for a fifth day yesterday, the worst run of losses in more than a month, after economic growth in Japan missed expectations. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that orders and sales dropped in August for the first time in more than a year.

“The market is still concerned about weakness in the global economy,” said Ken Hasegawa, commodity-derivatives sales manager at brokerage Newedge in Tokyo.

Crude for September delivery was at $75.33 a barrel, up 9 cents, at 9:25 a.m. in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, the contract fell 15 cents to settle at $75.24 a barrel, the lowest level since July 12. Futures have dropped 5.1 percent this year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s so-called Empire State factory index showed that bookings dropped for the first time since June 2009, while sales fell at the fastest pace since March 2009. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index unexpectedly declined to a 17-month low.

The Nikkei 225 weakened as much as 1.2 percent to 9,084.24 in Tokyo, dropping for a second day. The broader Topix index retreated as much as 1 percent.

Homebuilder Confidence

U.S. equities were mixed. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,079.38 as of 4 p.m. in New York, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.14 points to 10,302.01.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropped to 13 this month, the lowest level since March 2009, from 14 in July, the Washington-based group said yesterday. Economists forecast a reading of 15, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Readings of less than 50 mean that more respondents said conditions were poor.

Federal Reserve policy makers last week announced their first attempt to bolster growth since March 2009.

“If there is more weak data from U.S. economic indices in the rest of the week, the market may go down to around $72 a barrel,” said Newedge’s Hasegawa.

Gross domestic product in Japan climbed an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the country’s Cabinet Office said yesterday, pushing the economy into third place behind the U.S. and China. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 2.3 percent.

Brent crude oil for October was at $75.66 a barrel, 1.1 percent higher on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. It rose 0.2 percent to settle at $75.63 yesterday. The September contract, which expired at the close yesterday, fell 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $74.85 a barrel.

Crude Oil Rises From One-Month Low as U.S. Manufacturing May Have Expanded

Crude oil rose from a one-month low as traders increased bets that prices will rise and analysts predicted manufacturing in the U.S. may have expanded last month, spurring optimism over a recovery in fuel demand.

U.S. factory production and housing starts probably rose in July, economists said before reports this week. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, increased 8 percent in the week ended Aug. 10, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Open positions increasing to the long side could add a dollar or two over the coming days,” said Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $75.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $75.68 a barrel at 7:33 a.m. in Singapore. The contract fell 0.5 percent on Aug. 13 to settle at $75.39, the lowest price since July 12. Futures fell 6.6 percent for the week, the most since the period ended July 2.

Oil declined last week as a lack of jobs prompted Americans to hold back on spending, according to Commerce Department figures. U.S. gasoline supplies also increased for the seventh week.

Brent crude oil for September settlement fell 41 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $75.11 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange on Aug. 13.

Oil Rebounds After Slumping to One-Month Low on Higher U.S. Jobless Claims

Crude oil rebounded from a one-month low and traded above $76 a barrel in New York after falling as U.S. applications for unemployment benefits rose.

Oil, which has declined 5.7 percent this week, rose for the first time in four days. Futures fell the most in six weeks yesterday as initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 last week, the highest level since February.

Crude oil for September delivery gained as much as 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.13 a barrel and was at $76.08 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:19 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell $2.28 to $75.74, the lowest settlement since July 12. Futures are up 8 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for September settlement fell $2.12, or 2.7 percent, to end the session at $75.52 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe Exchange yesterday. It was the lowest close since July 21.

Oil Trades Near Seven-Day Low as Productivity Drop Casts Doubt on Recovery

Crude oil was little changed near a seven-day low after the Labor Department reported the productivity of U.S. workers fell in the second quarter, a sign the economy is struggling to recover.

Oil dropped 1.5 percent yesterday as the department said the U.S. lost momentum heading into the second year of the recovery from the recession. Crude pared its losses after Federal Reserve policy makers announced their first attempt to bolster growth since March 2009. Gasoline supplies rose last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

“Sentiment in the U.S. is somewhat mixed,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital Advisors in Seattle. “I still think we’re in dire shape. For now, it looks like the markets might hold.”

Crude oil for September delivery traded at $80.37 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:18 Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.23 to $80.25, the lowest price since July 30. Futures have climbed 16 percent in the past year.

The Labor Department’s measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 0.9 percent annual rate, the first drop since the end of 2008. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 0.1 percent gain.

The Fed decided to maintain its holdings of securities to prevent money from being drained out of the financial system and to keep the slowing U.S. economy from relapsing into recession. The central bank said it will reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities.

Price Forecast

The Energy Department increased its crude-oil price forecast for 2010 to an average $79.13 a barrel from $78.69 in July, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday. The department raised its estimate for global oil consumption this year to 85.91 million barrels a day from 85.82 million last month.

A weather system in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours, according to a U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast at 2 p.m. Miami time.

U.S. crude oil supplies declined 2.8 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said. An Energy Department report today may show that inventories dropped by 2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Gasoline stockpiles increased 729,000 barrels last week, the Petroleum Institute said. The Energy Department report may show inventories rose 250,000 barrels from 223 million, the Bloomberg News survey shows.

The Petroleum Institute collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

Brent crude oil for September settlement fell $1.39, or 1.7 percent, to $79.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange yesterday.

Oil Trades Above $81 After Rising With Equities on Optimism Over Economy

Crude oil was little changed above $81 a barrel in New York after rising for the first time in four days as advancing equity markets buoyed confidence that the economic rebound will spur fuel demand.

Oil rose 1 percent yesterday as the MSCI World Index of equities in 24 developed nations climbed to a 12-week high amid speculation slower U.S. jobs growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to extend efforts to strengthen the economy. U.S. crude stockpiles probably declined last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow.

“Sentiment in the oil market is very mixed,” Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, said by telephone. “We’re stuck in a range. If oil takes out $82.50, it’ll be a different ball game. It may test $85.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $81.49 a barrel, up 1 cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:59 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract rose 78 cents to settle at $81.48. Futures have climbed 16 percent in the past year.

The MSCI index advanced 0.5 percent in New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.6 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee meets today.

A report that U.S. companies hired fewer workers than forecast last month intensified a debate among economists over whether Fed policy makers will take an incremental step toward providing more stimulus.

Crude Inventories

Crude stockpiles in the U.S. probably declined 2 million barrels last week, according to the Bloomberg survey. Refineries probably ran at 90.7 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior week, the survey showed.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington.

Global refining margins, or the profit from turning crude oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, averaged $4.58 a barrel from July 1 to Aug. 5, down 17 percent from a second- quarter average of $5.49 a barrel, according to data published yesterday by BP Plc.

The margin along the U.S. Gulf Coast, home to 43 percent of the country’s refining capacity, was $4.84 a barrel, down 27 percent from the second-quarter average, according to BP’s Global Indicator Margin. Lower refinery margins reduce the incentive to buy and process oil into gasoline and other fuels.

Brent crude oil for September settlement traded at $81.05 a barrel, up 6 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:03 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract rose 83 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $80.99.

Oil Rises First Time in Four Days on Optimism Over U.S. Economic Recovery

Crude rose for the first time in four days amid optimism fuel demand will increase because of improved prospects for an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil-consuming country.

Oil advanced as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast U.S. retail sales probably climbed in July for the first time in three months as incentives spurred auto purchases. The 0.5 percent estimated gain followed a 0.5 percent decline in June. An Energy Department report Aug. 4 showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell 2.8 million barrels to 357.9 million.

“The demand outlook is improving, albeit slowly,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Where we are at the moment at $80 a barrel is probably where we should be, based on fundamentals,” he said.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $80.95 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $80.85 at 9:40 a.m. Sydney time. The contract fell $1.31, or 1.6 percent, to $80.70 on Aug. 6. Futures are 15 percent higher than a year ago.

Oil declined on Aug. 6 after the U.S. Labor Department said private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by 71,000, less than forecast, after a gain of 31,000 in June that was smaller than previously reported.

“We do have these negative blips on the radar every now and then, and U.S. non-farm payrolls was a pretty significant macro-data release,” National Australia Bank’s Westmore said. “I certainly don’t think that the market balance at the moment justifies a price of $84 to $85.”

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose as much as 33 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.49 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $80.30 at 8:17 a.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped $1.45, or 1.8 percent, to end the session at $80.16 on Aug. 6.

Oil Little Changed Near Three-Month High After Falling on Jobless Claims

Crude oil was little changed near a three-month high after declining as the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment insurance climbed to the most since April.

Oil dropped for a second day yesterday and equities fell after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased by 19,000 to 479,000 last week. U.S. retailers reported July sales gains that missed analysts’ estimates as consumers cut spending. An Energy Department report Aug. 4 showed that crude oil supplies in the Midwest surged to a record as nationwide fuel stockpiles rose.

“U.S. markets fell marginally after an unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims and sluggish retail sales data,” said Chris Weston, a Melbourne-based institutional dealer at IG Markets. “Retail sales data out from individual retailers was decidedly sluggish, painting the picture of a cautious consumer.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $82.08 a barrel, up 7 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:48 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract declined 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $82.01. On Aug. 3, oil settled at $82.55, the highest level since May 4. Futures are up 4 percent this week and 14 percent higher than a year ago.

Economists forecast U.S. jobless claims would fall to 455,000, according to the median of 43 projections. Estimates ranged from 444,000 to 470,000. The government revised the prior week’s total to 460,000 from a previously reported 457,000.

Crude Supplies

Crude oil inventories in the 15-state U.S. Midwest rose to 97.7 million barrels in the week ended July 30, the highest level recorded since the data started in 1990, the Energy Department report showed.

Gasoline supplies increased 729,000 barrels to 223 million, the highest level since April 30. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.17 million barrels to 169.7 million, the highest level since the week ended Oct. 16.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments this month as refineries close for maintenance, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. OPEC will ship 23.33 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 21, down 1.8 percent from 23.75 million barrels a day in the month ended July 24, the Halifax, England-based consultant said yesterday. The data exclude Ecuador and Angola.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s largest state-owned oil company, lowered official selling prices on all crude grades for customers in Asia and Europe for September, and cut prices for light grades to the U.S.

The U.S. reduced its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane period to 14 to 20 named storms, down from 14 to 23, because of less activity than expected in the first two months of the season.

Brent crude oil for September settlement fell 59 cents, or 0.7 percent, to end the session at $81.61 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Oil Trades Above $82 a Third Day as U.S. Economic Reports Boost Optimism

Crude oil traded above $82 a barrel for a third day after U.S. reports showed service industries and payrolls rose more than forecast in July, signaling fuel demand may increase amid improved prospects for an economic recovery.

Oil remained near a three-month high after gaining 7 percent in the previous five days as an index of U.S. service industries grew to 54.3 in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Economists forecast the index of non- manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, would fall to 53. Crude stockpiles dropped, while fuel supplies rose last week, the Energy Department said.

“The ISM non-manufacturing index, which is generally seen as a good indicator of activity in the U.S., was up more than expected,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “It’s a good sign for distillate use and oil demand generally. The broad change in fundamentals is positive for oil prices, but it will take a little while to work off the residual stocks.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $82.46 a barrel, down 1 cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:14 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell 8 cents to settle $82.47. On Aug. 3, oil settled at $82.55, the highest level since May 4. Futures have gained 14.5 percent in the past year.

U.S. companies added 42,000 workers in July, compared with a revised 19,000 in June, according to figures yesterday from ADP Employer Services, a private report based on payrolls. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a gain of 30,000, according to the median estimate.

Equities Gain

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its highest close in more than two months, after the reports. The S&P 500 climbed to 1,127.24 in New York, its highest closing level since May 17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to its highest point since May 13.

“Wall Street rose overnight on the back of better-than- expected private sector jobs numbers,” said David Taylor, a market analyst at CMC Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “This brought confidence back into the market.”

U.S. oil supplies decreased 2.78 million barrels to 358 million, according to an Energy Department report. They jumped by 7.31 million barrels in the week ended July 23, the biggest increase since March 19. Inventories were forecast to decline 1.65 million barrels in the Bloomberg survey.

Gasoline Supplies

U.S. gasoline supplies increased 729,000 barrels to 223 million in the week ended July 30, the highest level since April 30, the Energy Department reported. They were forecast to drop by 1 million barrels, based on the median estimate of 17 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Gasoline inventories were the highest for the final week in July in Energy Department data going back to 1990. Refinery utilization jumped 0.6 percentage point to 91.2 percent in the week ended July 30.

Brent crude for September settlement traded at $82.28 a barrel, up 8 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:11 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped 48 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $82.20.

Oil Is Near Three-Month High After Breaching $81 for First Time Since May

Oil traded near a three-month high after breaching $81 a barrel for the first time since May as global equities advanced because of improved prospects for an economic recovery.

Crude rose for a third day yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing gauge fell less than forecast and companies including HSBC Holdings Plc reported better-than-expected earnings. Asian stocks rose. Oil supplies probably fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before an Energy Department report tomorrow.

“We saw some robust earnings coming out of several heavyweight European banks, and the manufacturing data out of the U.S. held above expectations,” said David Taylor, a market analyst at CMC Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “Last night saw a string of better-than-expected numbers lift confidence and encourage investors back into the market.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $81.51 a barrel, up 17 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:57 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $2.39, or 3 percent, to $81.34, the highest since May 4. Futures climbed 4.4 percent in July, the biggest monthly gain since March. Prices are up 2.7 percent this year.

The ISM’s manufacturing gauge fell to 55.5 in July from 56.2 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said. Economists had forecast the measure would drop to 54.5, according to the median of 74 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 52.5 to 56.

Equities Advance

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 2.2 percent in New York and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2 percent. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 24 developed nations, climbed 2.4 percent to the highest level since May 13.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 121.68 as of 9:38 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its highest close since May 5.

The U.S. has plans for “military options” it can use to stop Iran, the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, from developing nuclear weapons, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

A tropical depression formed yesterday in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said. The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour, 4 mph less than the threshold to be declared a tropical storm and given a name, according to a bulletin released at about 11 a.m. Miami time.

August and September are the most active months of the Atlantic hurricane season. Storms can threaten states along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico which account for 31 percent of U.S. oil output and 43 percent of the country’s refining capacity.

Brent crude for September settlement rose as much as 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $81.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $81.01 at 9:04 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract gained $2.64, or 3.4 percent, to $80.82.

Oil Trades Near One-Week Low After Surprise Gain in U.S. Supplies of Crude

Crude oil traded near a one-week low in New York on an unexpected increase in U.S. supplies as imports jumped to the highest level in almost four years.

Oil dropped 0.7 percent yesterday after an Energy Department report showed crude inventories climbed 7.31 million barrels to 360.8 million in the week ended July 23, the biggest gain since March 19. Analysts in a Bloomberg News survey had forecast stockpiles would tumble to a four-month low. Imports climbed to the highest level since August 2006.

“Sentiment is very mixed,” Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, said by telephone. “The oil market looks to be nicely controlled within a range. The fundamental story is not clear. We saw inventory builds at a time when we didn’t expect them to rise.”

Crude oil for September delivery was at $76.95 a barrel, down 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:37 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell 51 cents to $76.99. Futures have dropped 3.1 percent so far this year.

Imports rose 1.18 million barrels, or 12 percent, to 11.2 million, the highest level since the week ended Aug. 25, 2006. Crude oil supplies were forecast to decline 1.73 million barrels, according to the 16 analysts in the Bloomberg survey.

“Any increase in inventories tends to put pressure on the price of oil to pull back,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital Advisors in Seattle. “The price of oil is at a stand-still for now.”

Durable Goods

Oil prices also fell yesterday after total orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, unexpectedly dropped 1 percent amid a slump in demand for aircraft. The Commerce Department report deepened concern that the economic recovery may be flagging and limiting fuel demand.

Economists forecast total durable goods orders would climb 1 percent, according to the median of 76 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The Commerce Department revised May’s decline to 0.8 percent from the previously reported 0.6 percent.

The Federal Reserve said yesterday that growth slowed in some areas over the past two months, dragged down by commercial real estate and the expiration of a tax credit for homebuyers. In its Beige Book, the Fed said “activity has continued to increase, on balance.” Two of the 12 districts reported slower growth and two said the economy “held steady.”

Brent crude for September settlement traded at $75.86 a barrel, down 20 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:11 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, to settle at $76.06.

Oil Falls a Second Day After U.S. Supplies Gain, Consumer Confidence Drops

Oil fell for a second day in New York after an industry report showed U.S. crude inventories rose and the Conference Board said confidence among the nation’s consumers fell, signaling growth and energy demand may falter.

Oil dropped the most in more than three weeks yesterday as the confidence index declined to the lowest level in five months. The gauge was at 50.4 from a revised 54.3 in June, the New York- based private research group showed. It was forecast to drop to 51, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude supplies rose by 3.08 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said.

“Sentiment really hasn’t improved,” Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said by telephone. “There was a sell-off in the crude market because of a fall in U.S. consumer confidence. The fundamentals are still weak.”

Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 62 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $76.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $77.13 at 10:15 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.48, or 1.9 percent, to $77.50. Futures have declined 3 percent since the start of the year.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose to 356.3 million, the Petroleum Institute said yesterday. Gasoline stockpiles climbed 877,000 barrels to 222.3 million, the report showed.

Government Report

A government report today may show U.S. oil inventories dropped to a four-month low, according to a Bloomberg News survey. U.S. stockpiles probably fell 1.73 million barrels in the seven days ended July 23 from 353.5 million the week earlier, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Petroleum Institute collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

Gasoline demand rose 1.7 percent last week, as U.S. motorists bought an average 9.51 million barrels a day of the motor fuel in the week ended July 23, according to MasterCard Inc.’s SpendingPulse report yesterday. The gain was the second in a row and the sixth in seven weeks.

Oil touched $79.69 a barrel in intraday trading yesterday, the highest level since May 6, as global equities gained before the consumer confidence report.

Estimates for consumer confidence ranged from 46 to 55.5 in the Bloomberg survey of 73 economists after a previously reported 52.9 reading in June. The Conference Board measure averaged 98 during the expansion that ended in December 2007.

Brent crude for September settlement fell 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $75.85 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:25 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday the contract fell $1.37, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $76.13.

Crude Oil Trades Near $79 on Weakening Storm, U.S. Economic Growth Concern

Crude oil traded near $79 a barrel in New York after dropping from an 11-week high as Tropical Storm Bonnie weakened and on concern that the pace of fuel demand recovery in the U.S. may falter.

Oil declined as Bonnie degenerated to a “disorganized area of low pressure.” Prices also fell amid forecasts that the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual pace after increasing at a 2.7 percent rate in the first three months of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a July 30 Commerce Department report.

“It’s still a case of U.S. demand not being particularly strong and that’s a reflection really of a pretty tepid U.S. economic recovery,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The market also seems to have removed some of that weather premium that had been built in response to the threat posed with Bonnie.”

Crude oil for September delivery traded at $79.03 a barrel, up 5 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:35 a.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $78.98 on July 23 after reaching $79.30 on July 22, the highest close since May 5. Futures are up 16 percent from a year ago.

Storms are closely watched in the Gulf, partly because they may topple oil production platforms and rupture pipelines. The Gulf accounts for about 31 percent of U.S. oil output and 10 percent of its natural-gas production, according to the Energy Department. The coast along Louisiana and Texas is home to 42 percent of U.S. refining capacity.

Brent crude for September settlement traded at $77.69 a barrel, up 24 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:35 a.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $77.45 on July 23.

Crude Oil Falls After Reports Raise Concern U.S. Economic Recovery to Slow

Jul 15, 2010 - Crude oil tumbled after government reports bolstered concern that the U.S. economic recovery will slow, reducing fuel consumption.

Oil dipped 0.6 percent after the Federal Reserve said that U.S. factory output fell 0.4 percent in June, the biggest decline in a year. Other reports showed factories pulled back in the New York and Philadelphia regions in July. The major stock indexes dropped at least 1.2 percent before rebounding after oil settled to close little changed.

“There’s nothing good in today’s economic reports that you can point to,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “Oil is overpriced given where the economy is.”

Crude for August delivery dropped 42 cents to settle at $76.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped as low as $75.33 during the session. The price is up 25 percent from a year ago.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 7.41 points to 10,359.31 at 4:01 p.m. in New York, the first drop in eight days. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.1 percent to 1,096.48 after trading below the previous close most of the day.

Oil in New York has traded in a range of $8.29 for the past month, from $71.09 to $79.38 a barrel. The August contract’s discount to the December contract is $1.83, down from $3.21 on June 18.

“Until we see solid economic growth, prices will stay in this range,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural-resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “The forward curve has come down a lot, which is a sign that people are less optimistic about the economy and demand growth.”

New York Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that showed its general economic index fell to 5.1 in July from 19.6 the prior month. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index declined to 5.1 this month, the lowest level since August 2009, from 8 in June.

Economists monitor the New York and Philadelphia Fed factory reports for clues about the Institute for Supply Management figures on U.S. manufacturing during the month. The July ISM data will be released Aug. 2.

China’s economic growth rate eased to 10.3 percent in the second quarter. The gain in gross domestic product was less than an 11.9 percent increase in January-March from a year earlier. Industrial output rose 13.7 percent, less than all but one of 27 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Their economy is clearly decelerating, which has to worry investors,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis.

The U.S. and China, the world’s biggest energy consuming countries, accounted for 32 percent of global oil demand in 2009, according to BP Plc, which publishes its BP Statistical Review of World Energy each June.

OPEC Shipments

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will ship 23.6 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 31, compared with 23.58 million in the month ended July 3, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements. The data exclude Ecuador and Angola.

OPEC’s compliance with production targets slipped in June on higher production from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. The 11 members bound by quotas increased output by 61,700 barrels a day to 26.86 million, implying compliance of 52 percent, according to the group’s Monthly Oil Market Report today. OPEC completed 54 percent of its promised cuts in May, the data show.

An Energy Department report yesterday showed that stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased last week as crude oil supplies dropped. Both crude and fuel stockpiles were above the five-year average for the period.

‘A Lot of Crude’

“We still have a lot of crude on hand,” said Kyle Cooper, a managing director at energy consultant IAF Advisors in Houston. “What we need are products such as gasoline, and those supplies increased.”

Gasoline for August delivery slipped 0.58 cent, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $2.0607 a gallon in New York. Heating oil for August delivery declined 1.78 cents, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at $2.0183 a gallon.

Brent crude for August settlement fell 58 cents, or 0.8 percent, to end the session at $76.19 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The August contract expired today. The more actively traded September contract dropped 57 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $76.09.

Oil volume on the Nymex was 588,338 contracts as of 3:09 p.m. in electronic trading in New York. Volume totaled 683,617 contracts yesterday, 8.2 percent below the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.28 million contracts.

Oil Falls After Federal Reserve’s Outlook, Decline in Equities

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined after the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the economic outlook has “softened” added to concerns a recovery in fuel demand may falter in the U.S., the biggest energy-consuming nation.

Oil fell after most U.S. equities dropped, halting a six- day rally, as a drop in retail sales and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policy makers saw no need to boost economic stimulus even as they trimmed growth forecasts. U.S. crude supplies declined, while gasoline inventories climbed 1.6 million barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed.

“There are a growing number of indicators that point to a slowing U.S. economy,” said David Land, chief market analyst at CMC Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “The Federal Reserve’s revised assessment of the economy and weaker-than-expected retail sales figures put a dampener on things.”

Crude oil for August delivery dropped as much as 48 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $76.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $76.62 at 9:57 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract slipped 11 cents to settle at $77.04 after reaching $78.15, the highest intraday price since June 29. Futures have declined 3.5 percent since the start of the year.

Fuel demand tumbled 4 percent to 18.8 million barrels a day, the lowest level since April 23, the Energy Department report showed. It was the biggest one-week decline since March.

Sales at U.S. retailers dropped in June for a second month. Purchases decreased 0.5 percent, more than projected, after declining 1.1 percent in May, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday in Washington.

‘Softening’ Outlook

“The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside,” minutes released yesterday in Washington of Federal Reserve policy makers’ June meeting showed. “The changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place.”

U.S. crude-oil supplies fell 5.06 million barrels to 353.1 million, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to slip 1.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News analyst survey. Refineries operated at 90.5 percent of capacity, the highest level since January 2008.

Inventories have dropped 12 million barrels in three weeks to the lowest level since March 19. It’s the longest string of declines since December.

Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 2.94 million barrels to 162.6 million, the department said. Inventories were forecast to rise by 1 million barrels.

Brent crude for August settlement increased 12 cents to end the session at $76.77 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The contract expires today. The more- active September contract slipped 7 cents to $76.66 a barrel.

Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as U.S. Equities Advance on Alcoa

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near a two-week high in New York after U.S. stocks advanced and on optimism fuel demand will increase amid improved prospects for an economic recovery in the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil rose 2.9 percent yesterday as U.S. equities gained for the sixth straight day after Alcoa Inc.’s earnings topped analysts’ estimates. Prices also rose as the International Energy Agency forecast oil demand will grow in 2011. U.S. crude inventories probably fell last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a government report today.

“Sentiment has turned positive and commodities and equities are benefiting from that,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “It’s the start of the quarterly earnings season, which has kicked off on a positive note with Alcoa.”

Crude oil for August delivery traded at $77.26 a barrel, up 11 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:23 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract rose $2.20 to $77.15, the highest level since June 28. Futures have gained 2.7 percent since the start of the year.

Global oil demand will increase 1.6 percent in 2011 to average 87.8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based IEA said in its first forecast for next year. It left its estimate for 2010 unchanged with a demand growth rate of 2.1 percent to an average 87.8 million barrels a day in a report released yesterday.

U.S. gasoline demand rose 2.1 percent from June 30 to July 6, the Tuesday after the July Fourth holiday, from a similar period last year, according to MasterCard Inc.’s SpendingPulse report yesterday.

Crude Supplies

U.S. crude stockpiles increased 1.74 million barrels to 353.5 million last week, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute. The Energy Department will probably report that inventories fell 1.5 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts shows.

The Petroleum Institute collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

Profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to have increased 34 percent in the second quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer, reported net income of $136 million, or 13 cents a share, exceeding the 11-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Brent crude for August settlement gained $2.28, or 3.1 percent, to $76.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Crude Oil Trades Near a Three-Day Low After Dollar Strengthens

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near a three-day low in New York after the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil fell 1.5 percent yesterday as the dollar advanced amid speculation that tests to demonstrate the resilience of Europe’s banking system will fail to assure investors that the region is recovering from its sovereign-debt crisis.

“The wind has come out of the market’s sails,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. “Last week we got to the top of the recent trading range but failed to break through it, so without a boost from the equity market, oil is likely to sag a bit more.”

Crude for August delivery traded at $75.07 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:31 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.14 to $74.95, the lowest close since July 7. Prices have declined 5.4 percent this year.

The dollar traded at $1.2591 per euro at 8:33 a.m. Sydney time from $1.2596 per euro in New York yesterday, when it strengthened to $1.2551.

U.S. crude oil inventories probably fell 1.35 million barrels in the seven days ended July 9, according to the median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before a government report tomorrow.

Brent crude for August settlement dropped $1.05, or 1.4 percent, to settle at $74.37 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Oil Rises a Fourth Day as China’s Crude Imports Climb to Record

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose for a fourth day in New York after China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, increased crude imports to a record in June.

Oil gained as China’s net purchases climbed to 22.14 million metric tons, or about 5.39 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data released July 10 by the General Administration of Customs. That beat the previous record of 20.98 million tons in April. U.S. fuel demand rose 3.2 percent in the week ended July 2, the Energy Department said.

“The Chinese trade data was quite strong for crude oil imports,” said David Moore, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “U.S. demand has picked up over the year, but the strongest growth is in the developing economies.”

Crude for August delivery rose as much as 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $76.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $76.27 at 10:05 a.m. in Sydney. The contract gained 65 cents, or 0.9 percent, to settle at $76.09 on July 9. Futures have declined 3.9 percent since the start of the year.

The global economy will grow 4.6 percent in 2010, the biggest expansion since 2007, the International Monetary Fund said on July 7 in revisions to its World Economic Outlook.

Brent crude for August settlement traded at $75.53 a barrel, up 11 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:26 a.m. Sydney time. The contract climbed 71 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $75.42 July 9.

Oil Poised for Biggest Weekly Gain in Six as Supplies Decline

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose, poised for its biggest weekly gain in six, as U.S. crude inventories fell after Hurricane Alex disrupted Gulf of Mexico output and deliveries, and a drop in jobless claims prompted optimism on the economy.

Oil rose for a third day after the Energy Department said crude supplies dropped the most since September. U.S. retailers yesterday reported sales gains in June, while the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth this year on July 7, reflecting a stronger-than-expected first half.

“There’s optimism out there,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Oil is benefiting from the IMF report and retail numbers. The draws in stockpiles were encouraging. I expect prices to move up to $80, but we still need more signs of recovery.”

Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.90 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $75.78 at 9:40 a.m. in Sydney. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.37, or 1.9 percent, to $75.44, the highest settlement since June 30.

Oil is poised for a gain of 5 percent for the week, the biggest increase since May 28. Futures have climbed 25 percent from a year ago.

U.S. crude oil supplies fell 4.96 million barrels to 358.2 million, the Energy Department said. Total U.S. fuel consumption increased 3.2 percent to 19.6 million barrels a day, the highest level since the week ended May 28, the department said in a weekly report.

Jobless Claims

Alex, the earliest hurricane of the Atlantic season since 1995, made landfall in northeastern Mexico June 30. Almost 421,000 barrels of daily oil output, or 26 percent of Gulf of Mexico production, was shut-in on the day the storm hit shore.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits last week fell 21,000 in the week ended July 3 to 454,000, a level that indicates improvement in the labor market is taking time to develop. Economists had forecast jobless applications would decline to 460,000 from an initially reported 472,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 36 projections in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. retailers reported sales gains in June as record-high temperatures on the East Coast pushed more shoppers into air- conditioned malls.

German industrial production climbed in May as the global recovery fueled demand for goods from Europe’s largest economy. Production rose 2.6 percent from April, when it gained a revised 1.2 percent, the Economy Ministry said. Economists had forecast a 0.9 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The world economy will expand 4.6 percent in 2010, the biggest gain since 2007, compared with an April projection of 4.2 percent, the Washington-based IMF said in revisions to its World Economic Outlook.

Brent crude for August delivery climbed $1.20, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $74.71 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.