Oil Poised for Biggest Weekly Gain in Six as Supplies Decline

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose, poised for its biggest weekly gain in six, as U.S. crude inventories fell after Hurricane Alex disrupted Gulf of Mexico output and deliveries, and a drop in jobless claims prompted optimism on the economy.

Oil rose for a third day after the Energy Department said crude supplies dropped the most since September. U.S. retailers yesterday reported sales gains in June, while the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth this year on July 7, reflecting a stronger-than-expected first half.

“There’s optimism out there,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Oil is benefiting from the IMF report and retail numbers. The draws in stockpiles were encouraging. I expect prices to move up to $80, but we still need more signs of recovery.”

Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.90 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $75.78 at 9:40 a.m. in Sydney. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.37, or 1.9 percent, to $75.44, the highest settlement since June 30.

Oil is poised for a gain of 5 percent for the week, the biggest increase since May 28. Futures have climbed 25 percent from a year ago.

U.S. crude oil supplies fell 4.96 million barrels to 358.2 million, the Energy Department said. Total U.S. fuel consumption increased 3.2 percent to 19.6 million barrels a day, the highest level since the week ended May 28, the department said in a weekly report.

Jobless Claims

Alex, the earliest hurricane of the Atlantic season since 1995, made landfall in northeastern Mexico June 30. Almost 421,000 barrels of daily oil output, or 26 percent of Gulf of Mexico production, was shut-in on the day the storm hit shore.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits last week fell 21,000 in the week ended July 3 to 454,000, a level that indicates improvement in the labor market is taking time to develop. Economists had forecast jobless applications would decline to 460,000 from an initially reported 472,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 36 projections in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. retailers reported sales gains in June as record-high temperatures on the East Coast pushed more shoppers into air- conditioned malls.

German industrial production climbed in May as the global recovery fueled demand for goods from Europe’s largest economy. Production rose 2.6 percent from April, when it gained a revised 1.2 percent, the Economy Ministry said. Economists had forecast a 0.9 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The world economy will expand 4.6 percent in 2010, the biggest gain since 2007, compared with an April projection of 4.2 percent, the Washington-based IMF said in revisions to its World Economic Outlook.

Brent crude for August delivery climbed $1.20, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $74.71 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Gold May Advance as Price Decline Spurs Buying, Survey Shows

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance on speculation that the metal’s drop to the lowest level in more than six weeks will prompt some investors to increase holdings, a survey found.

Thirteen of 20 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 65 percent, said bullion will climb next week. Four forecast lower prices and three were neutral. Gold for delivery in August was down 1.5 percent for this week at $1,189.50 an ounce at 11 a.m. yesterday on the Comex in New York. It reached a record $1,266.50 on June 21.

Gold slipped on July 7 to $1,185 an ounce, the lowest price since May 24, and is heading for a third weekly decline. The metal gained this year as investors sought to shield their wealth from financial turbulence in Europe and on concern the global recovery may slow. The European Central Bank yesterday left its main interest rate unchanged at a record low 1 percent and the Bank of England kept its rate at 0.5 percent.

“Many traders and investors who have been on the sidelines in recent weeks see the present selloff as a buying opportunity,” analysts at Dublin-based broker GoldCore Ltd. said in a report. “Until savers and bondholders are compensated for considerable risk with higher yields, gold is likely to remain in a secular bull market.”

The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling that most respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data shown are as of July 2.

The weekly gold survey that started six years ago has forecast prices accurately in 182 of 318 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 9th July 2010

FCPO 3rd month Sep futures contract rebound RM20 lower to close at RM2290 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 8,789 lots traded in the market. FCPO price was opened higher for trading as soybean oil and crude oil were traded firm during overnight and electronic trading sessions.
FCPO manage to record new high at RM2310 levels during open for trading but retrace lower towards 50% Fibonacci support levels at RM2290 regions. Technically, FCPO price seems could be riding on rebound wave where next nearest resistance levels at RM2310 and RM2334; 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels. However, FCPO price trading still seems support at RM2260 and RM2130 regions in the hourly trading price chart.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 9th July 2010

FKLI July Futures contract traded 12 points higher to close at 1316.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 5,578 lots traded in the market. FKLI opened higher as Dow Jones index was settle almost 3% higher as compare to previous trading sessions while Nikkei further encourage for higher opening by trading around 260 points point as compare to previous trading sessions.
FKLI tested low of wave 1 count at 1322 regions during open for trading and soon trading lower followed by consolidation for the entire trading sessions within range from 1315 to 1319 regions which coincidently same levels at 38.2% Fibonacci support levels at 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels. Technically, FKLI still seen uncertain on this rebound wave has been completed where only confirmation support levels seen at 1304 and 1298 regions while higher resistance levels were expected around 1326 and 1338 regions.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 8th July 2010

FCPO 3rd month Sep futures contract rebound RM31 lower to close at RM2270 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 8,203 lots traded in the market. FCPO price traded lower before end of trading sessions as crude oil plunge lower despite soybean oil traded sideways during electronic trading
FCPO penetrate previous low at RM2277 levels to reach new low at RM2270 levels after attempt to penetrate psychology levels at RM2300 regions failed. Technically, FCPO price seems attempt to challenge support levels at RM2260; 78.6% Fibonacci support levels, in the daily chart major wave count. However, FCPO price would only further affirm riding on Bull trend provided FCPO trading price manage to trade above resistance levels at RM2375 and RM2410 regions.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 8th July 2010

FKLI July Futures contract traded 7 points lower to close at 1304.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 6,578 lots traded in the market. FKLI opened lower but trading higher during trading sessions as most of the regional indices were covered from losing ground while KLCI was settled higher upon closing.
FKLI penetrate previous support levels at 1307.5 regions before manage to trade below 1300 psychology levels for a short while but slow recovered towards 50% Fibonacci resistance levels at 1305.5 regions. Technically, FKLI trading price seems temporary holding below resistance levels at 1313 and 1318 regions; 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance levels. However, in order for FKLI further affirm trading on correction phase, it’s very important FKLI trading price would trading below support levels at 1302 and 1292 regions.

FCPO Daily Commentary for 7th July 2010

FCPO 3rd month Sep futures contract rebound RM11 higher to close at RM2301 levels as compare to previous trading sessions with a total of 9,535 lots traded in the market. FCPO price recovered from losses as soybean oil and crude oil were recovered from previous losing ground.
FCPO price dip at RM2277 regions; 138.2% Fibonacci support levels, before begins to rebound higher towards psychology resistance levels at RM2300 regions while coincidently located same levels at 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level. Technically, FCPO price seems undergoing wave 4 rebound activity after attempt successfully found support levels at RM2277 to complete wave 3 count where nearest resistance levels were seen at RM2314 and RM2326 regions. However, FCPO price would seen to great support levels around RM2260 and RM2240 region in the daily chart which lead to assumption FCPO would trading within limited range during trading sessions.

FKLI Daily Commentary for 7th July 2010

FKLI July Futures contract traded 18 points higher to close at 1311.5 levels as compare to previous trading session to with a total of 9,704 lots traded in the market. FKLI opened lower as Dow Jones electronic trading plunged during early morning sessions but soon FKLI trading higher and settle highest as most of the regional indices and Dow Jones futures electronic trading recovered from losses during trading sessions.
FKLI penetrate previous resistance levels at 1296 regions during trading session and continue to surge up higher; indicates FKLI rebound larger wave count, towards 50% Fibonacci resistance levels at 1312.5 regions. Technically, FKLI seems undergoing larger wave 4 count where nearest seen at 1313, 1318 and 1326; all at 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci resistance levels. Able to hold FKLI trading price below the resistance levels shall lead to assumption for further south trading where nearest support seen at 1307.5 and 1302.

Crude Oil Rises as Investors Buy After Five Days of Decline

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in six days in New York as investors took the view its biggest weekly drop in eight made the commodity attractive to buy.

Oil climbed as much as 0.6 percent to snap a five-day decline. Crude dropped 8.5 percent in the week ended July 2, the biggest since the week ended May 7. There will be no floor trading on the Nymex today because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

“The outlook for growth around the world is certainly not as optimistic as it was a few months ago,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “There will be the longer-term participants in the market who are viewing this decline in price as a good time to get long.”

Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as 43 cents to $72.57 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.26 a barrel at 9:28 a.m. Sydney time. The contract fell 81 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $72.14 on July 2. Prices have declined 8.9 percent since the start of the year.

Oil dropped for a fifth day on July 2 after the Labor Department said payrolls decreased by 125,000 last month as the government cut temporary census workers. The 1.4 percent reduction in May bookings with manufacturers was the biggest since March 2009, the Commerce Department said. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 0.5 percent drop.

Brent crude oil for August settlement traded at $71.82 a barrel, up 17 cents, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London at 9:27 a.m. Sydney time. The contract fell 69 cents, or 1 percent, to $71.65 on July 2.