Oil Is Set for Weekly Decline on Recession, Slower OPEC Cut

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, set for a third weekly decline, as the global recession sapped demand for fuels and OPEC slowed the rate of cuts to its production.

Oil snapped three days of gains after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said yesterday that the economic crisis is “far from over.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will trim crude oil shipments by 0.6 percent in the four weeks ending May 9 as output cuts falter, said Oil Movements, the Halifax, England- based tanker-tracker.

“The international economy remains fundamentally weak and oil consumption is weak,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “For the near term, oil prices will move moderately lower to around $45 a barrel.”

Crude oil for June delivery fell as much as 56 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $49.06 a barrel, and traded at $49.22 at 1:17 p.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped 2.1 percent this week.

Oil has declined 67 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11 because of reduced global demand for crude.

“Until there is firm evidence that the stimulus package is working and the economy is growing, we will keep waffling around here,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York.

Oil Stockpiles

Futures have traded between $43.83 and $54.66 a barrel in the past month as surging U.S. inventories coincided with rising equity prices. Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Department reported crude stockpiles rose for a seventh consecutive week to the highest since September 1990.

“The market will continue to consolidate on either side of $50 in the foreseeable future because of inflation worries,” Kilduff said.

The euro rose against the yen and the dollar after a report showed an index of European services and manufacturing industries contracted in April at the slowest pace in six months, adding to evidence the economic slump is easing. The euro gained 0.8 percent against the dollar to $1.3115, from $1.3005 yesterday.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose 3.86 million barrels to 370.6 million and gasoline inventories climbed 802,000 barrels to 217.3 million, the Energy Department report showed.

Fuel Demand

Total daily fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, averaged 18.5 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended April 17, down 6.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the department.

Nippon Oil Corp., Japan’s largest refiner, will cut fuel production by about 6 percent next month from year-earlier levels as the recession in Japan weakens petroleum demand, the company said today.

OPEC will load about 22.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks ending May 9, down 0.6 percent from 22.4 million a day in the month ended April 11, Oil Movements said. In the month to May 2, it cut by 2.5 percent.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, producer of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, has completed about 80 percent of the 4.2 million barrels of daily production cuts it announced last year to take affect in 2009, according to Oil Movements. That compliance rate is unchanged from the last four reports, indicating that OPEC is not getting closer to its target. The group’s shipments are at a five-year low.

Crude oil may decline next week on speculation that U.S. inventories will increase because the recession has cut consumption.

Sixteen of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 46 percent, said futures will fall through May 1. Eleven respondents, or 31 percent, forecast that oil prices will be little changed and eight said the market will rise. Last week, 52 percent of analysts expected prices to be little changed.

Brent crude oil for June settlement was at $49.69 a barrel, down 42 cents, 1:17 p.m. Singapore time on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.