OPEC Forecasts Slower Oil Demand Recovery Next Year Than IEA

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects a slower rebound in oil demand next year than the International Energy Agency, based on a weaker outlook for the global economy.

Worldwide crude-oil consumption will increase by 500,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, to 84.3 million a day in 2010 as industrial production gradually picks up after this year’s recession, OPEC said in a report today. That compares with an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million, forecast by the IEA on July 10.

“Current uncertainties are expected to continue to cast a shadow over the market in 2010,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its monthly report. “In the U.S., stretched households will require time to readjust their balance sheets, amid rising unemployment and sharply diminished wealth.”

Next year’s 2.3 percent increase in global gross domestic product will be driven by emerging countries, such as China and India, while economic growth among developed nations will remain “anemic,” OPEC said. The Paris-based IEA, which advises 28 consuming countries, assumes a stronger global GDP rebound of 2.5 percent.

OPEC’s 2010 projection is 300,000 barrels a day lower than the 84.6 million barrels a day estimated in the organization’s World Oil Outlook released on July 8. The monthly report is based on more timely data than the outlook, which projects through to 2013.

Demand for OPEC

OPEC, whose members account for about 40 percent of global oil supply, anticipates that demand for its own oil will shrink for a third year in 2010, by 400,000 barrels a day to 28.1 million a day.

The organization kept its demand estimate for 2009 nearly unchanged at 83.8 million barrels a day, 40,000 barrels a day higher than in the previous monthly report, citing an absence of recovery signals in developed economies outside the U.S.

Oil’s 38 percent rally since late April has encouraged some OPEC members to backtrack on record output cuts announced last year. Crude futures last traded for $60.45 a barrel as of 11:24 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC’s compliance rate slipped for a third month, to 72 percent, from 75 percent in May, the report showed. At its last meeting on May 28, the organization resolved to fully implement 4.2 million barrels a day of output curbs.

The 11 members bound by production quotas, which exclude Iraq, pumped 26.027 million barrels a day in June, an increase of 57,000 barrels a day from May, the group said, citing secondary sources that include estimates from analysts and news organizations. Angola, Saudi Arabia and Iran increased output the most in June, the report said.

Kazakhstan, Canada

OPEC estimated that production from outside the group will increase by 330,000 barrels a day next year to 50.96 million barrels a day, as a result of projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Canada. Non-OPEC supply expectations for 2009 were kept nearly unchanged at 50.62 million barrels a day.

Indonesia left the producer group this year. OPEC’s 12 remaining members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.