Crude May Decline on Ample Stockpiles, Survey Shows

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may fall next week on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet weakening demand.

Eighteen of 36 analysts, or 50 percent, said oil will drop through Oct. 30. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and six said prices will be little changed. Last week, analysts were split over whether prices would rise or fall.

“There is significant downside risk for crude oil,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Inventories remain high and demand is still weak.”

Crude oil stockpiles rose 1.31 million barrels to 339.1 million last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report Oct. 21. The gain left inventories 9.4 percent above the five- year average for the period. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, were 30 percent higher than average, the department said.

Fuel demand dropped 1.4 percent to an average of 18.7 million barrels a day during the week ended Oct. 16, according to the department. Consumption of distillate fuel fell 2 percent to 3.49 million barrels a day.

Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.48, or 1.9 percent, to $80.50 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 80 percent this year.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
12 6 18