Oil May Decline on Ample Inventories, Survey Shows

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week on rising U.S. inventories and speculation that demand will decrease next month, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Twenty-three of 50 analysts, or 46 percent, said oil will decline through March 19. Fourteen respondents, or 28 percent, predicted that futures will increase and 13 said there will be little change in prices. Last week analysts were split, with 38 percent of those surveyed forecasting a gain and an equal number looking for a drop.

U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 1.43 million barrels to 343 million last week, an Energy Department report on March 10 showed. It was the sixth straight increase and left stockpiles at the highest level since August.

“I’m bearish because demand is lagging and supply rising,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York.

Refineries operated at 80.7 percent of capacity last week, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous week. Refiners often schedule maintenance for March as winter heating-fuel consumption wanes and before the pick-up in gasoline demand that occurs in the summer.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet in Vienna on March 17. Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said “no new decision is expected” at the meeting on production, according to a March 9 statement.

“It doesn’t look like OPEC will do anything to change the landscape at next week’s meeting,” Evans said.

Crude oil for April delivery fell 26 cents this week, or 0.3 percent, to $81.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 73 percent from the level of a year ago.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 48 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.